New Orleans Breakers Playoff Scenarios. How Do They Get In?

Ethen Meyers • June 14, 2023

        The New Orleans Breakers are on the verge of turning a loss streak into an equal win streak. They started the season red hot on both sides of the ball jumping out to a 4-0 record, and then turnovers happened. The last two weeks those turnovers seemingly are being corrected, and their dominant performance 31-3 against the division opponent gave hope that they are getting back on track at the right time. Had they dropped either of the last two games, the playoff picture would be much harder to navigate. The Breakers sit in a spot that as a team you can only ask for, win and get in, but what if they don't win? Let's take a look at the other ways they can sneak in, but before we go there, here is the Seeding Tiebreakers for the USFL:

  1. Head-to-Head.
  2. Best division record.
  3. Strength of wins (Based on W-L records of opponents.).
  4. Highest points across season.
  5. Most touchdown across season.
  6. Coin toss.

        If you would like a tl;dr (too long, didn't read) of this, scroll down to the bottom for a quick recap!

Breakers Win.

        It is the most simple option, but not always the possible one. There are 4 teams who could win and still miss the playoffs by one game, which feels crazy to say but the North and their abysmal records really lined it up to be way open. For the Breakers? It doesn't matter. They win, they get in. It is the most simple path to the playoffs, and as an added bonus based on seeding, they could even steal the #1 spot from the Birmingham Stallions. If the Breakers beat the Gamblers and the Showboats beat the Stallions, New Orleans will take the #1 seed in the South, and the league. The first tie breaker would be head to head, which is split. The next goes to division, where the Breakers would hold a 1 game advantage over the Stallions and take the division title. There is currently no benefit of being the 1 seed outside of bragging rights, but pride is one hell of a drug.


Breakers lose, but Showboats lose?

        If the Breakers lose, it puts things a little muddy. In this scenario let's assume the Showboats also lose. That gives the Breakers and the Gamblers a tie. Breaking down the tie rules for the USFL the first tiebreaker is head to head, which is again split between the Breakers and Gamblers if the Breakers lose. Next, we would use division record, which would also be a tie.

        Now we are to strength of wins, which gets a little complicated but I won't bore you with the math. We cannot figure this out completely, as the season is not over but we can at least figure out if there is an advantage. For the scenario we will use the Breakers and Showboats losing. Breakers wins as follows; Maulers 3-6, Gamblers 6-4, Stallions 8-2, Generals 3-6, Panthers 3-6, Showboats 5-5. Gamblers wins as follows; Showboats 5-5, Stars 4-5, Stallions 8-2, Generals 3-6, Maulers 3-6, Breakers 6-4. That would leave the Breakers with a win strength record of 28-29 and the Gamblers with a win strength record of 29-28. The win the Gamblers have over the Stars compared to our win over the Panthers would give the Gamblers the win and the #2 seed, eliminating the Breakers from the playoffs here, however, that is only if the Stars beat the Panthers. If the Panthers win, it goes to #4, highest point total across the season. Before Week 10 The Breakers are at 220, and the Gamblers at 213 so if the Breakers do lose by more than 7, it goes to the Gamblers.

        But what if they lose by 7 exactly? I am glad you asked, lets jump into number 4 in the tiebreakers, most touchdowns. This does not specify any side of the ball, so we will assume it is across all facets of the game. The Breakers have 12 passing, 12 rushing, and 1 interception returned for a touchdown, the Gamblers have 9 passing and 16 rushing. Breakers 24, Gamblers 25. The Breakers Lose, Showboats lose is not looking great. In some weird turn of events the Gamblers could score 5 field goals only, and Breakers score a touchdown and go for 2. This would be a touchdown tie, and a loss by 7 exactly, which would go to a coin toss for the playoff berth. While the Breakers could lose by 6, and sneak in, or have the funky touchdown field goal dance, this is definitely not ideal as if we are aware of this, you can assume both coaches would be aware to and doing their best to make whatever needs to happen, happen.


Breaks Lose, Showboats win?

        This dives into tiebreakers again, a 3 way tie between the Breakers, Gamblers, and Showboats. We already slightly know where the Breakers and Gamblers sit from our previous scenario, but does adding the Showboats to the tie change anything? Starting with division, 3 way tie. Head to head, a 3 way tie. Great, we are back at math.  As a reminder, Breakers lose and Showboats win in this scenario make no changes to win strength for Breakers or Gamblers since it is just a win/loss swap for teams they beat. Breakers, 28-29 and Gamblers 29-28 which eliminates the Breakers, but the Panthers can still beat the Stars to make this a tie again at 30-28 between the Breakers and Gamblers. Let's see how the Showboats did win strength wise why don't we? Showboats wins as follows; Panthers 3-6, Breakers 6-4, Maulers 3-6, Gamblers 6-4, Generals 3-6, Stallions 7-3. This leaves the Show boats a win strength record of 28-29. Stars win? You guessed it. 3 way tie again.


        On to the next one, highest points. Heading into Week 10 Breakers are at 220, Gamblers are at 213, and the Showboats at 170. Again, in this scenario Breakers cannot lose by more than 7, and the Showboats need to score 50+ points for a good chance, let's assume the Showboats do not accomplish this (mainly because they would need 50 to TIE the Breakers and since the return of the USFL no team has surpassed 50 points in a game.) and it comes down to the Breakers and the Gamblers again. We revert back to the Breakers only losing by 6 and getting in, or losing by 7 exactly with a touchdown tie, or lose by 7 or more and be eliminated.

Recap? Recap.

        There are different ways for the Breakers to get in, but I will do a tl;dr (too long, didn't read) for anyone curious! I will number them from most ideal to least ideal.

  1. Breakers win, Stallions Lose. #1 seed belongs to Breakers, Stallions get #2.
  2. Breakers win, Stallions Win. #1 seed belongs to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  3. Breakers lose by 6 or fewer, Stallions win, and Stars win. #1 seed belongs to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  4. Breakers lose by 7 exactly with a score of 15(FGs only)-8(TD + 2pt conversion), Stallions win, Stars win, and Breakers win coin toss. #1 seed to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  5. Scenarios 3 and 4, but with a Breakers loss, and a Showboats win.

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By David Billiot Jr April 18, 2026
Friday Night Recap It was groundhog’s day again at Alex Box on Friday night, as LSU lost their 4th straight SEC game in the series opener to Texas A&M. Their night consisted of a lot of the same issues that have plagued them throughout this dreadful season. Casan Evans was off to a fantastic start through 4 innings, but the wheels eventually fell off and the Tigers were doing what they’ve had to do for most of their 16 SEC games so far. Play from behind. They fell behind 1-0, but were able to answer and tie the game. Unfortunately, Evans left the game with the team down 6-2 and the game was essentially over at that point. One of the biggest talking points of this team’s pitching this year as been being one out away. Often, it’s just one pitch away from getting out of an inning without sustaining damage. Time and time again, they’ve been unable to get off of the field and it continued in game 1. Speaking of old issues continuing on Friday night, the inability to get a big 2-out hit that has plagued this lineup for most of the season, was again on full display. They’ve constantly let pitchers off of the hook and that’s what happened multiple times tonight. They left a runner on 3rd base in 3 of the first 5 innings, which simultaneously led to them falling behind as they often have. Going 1-8 with runners in scoring position is not going to win you many ball games, much less against an offensive team like Texas A&M. Despite two good performances in the middle of the lineup, it was the top of the order that let the Tigers down. Spots #1-#3 combined to go 3-15. Many of the at bats were uncompetitive, but that’s nothing new for this offense. Pitching Casan Evans showed up ready to roll on Friday evening. He struck out Gavin Grahovac on 3 pitches to start the game, on his way to striking out the side, despite a 2-out single up the middle. It was a quick 1-2-3 in the 2nd, including another strikeout and nice slow-roller play by John Pearson at 3rd base. Trouble began in the 3rd, as Evans walked 8-hole hitter Bear Harrison to lead off the inning, followed by a bloop single that put runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs. He followed up his 3-pitch strikeout of Grahovac with another 3-pitch strikeout for a big first out of the inning. Caden Sorrell then chopped a ground ball to Mason Braun at 1st base, but it took too long to get to the freshman, allowing the runner at 3rd to score as Braun stepped on the base for the second out. Another ground out to Pearson ended the inning, but only allowing a run after the situation Evans found himself in was a slight win. He bounced back in the 4th, striking out another two to bring his total to 7, pitching around a 2-out walk. He issued another leadoff walk to Harrison in the 5th, who’s .265 batting average was the lowest in the Aggies starting lineup. A strikeout and a flyout put him in position to nullify it, but Texas A&M rattled off three straight singles and just like that, LSU was down 4-1. A groundout would finally end a 30-pitch inning for the Tiger ace. Despite the gruel of a 5th inning, Evans returned for the 6th. He gave up a leadoff single on his 101st pitch of the night, but Jay Johnson chose to stick with him and it ended up being for too long. Freshman Jorian Wilson blasted a 2-run homerun so far out of the stadium that Derek Curiel barely moved. Despite the good first 4 innings, the wheels fell off for Evans and that would be all for him. Final line: 5.0 IP / 7 hits / 6 runs / 8 Ks / 3 BBs / 103 pitches (68 strikes, 66%) After starting the past two Sundays, it was Grant Fontenot as first out of the bullpen for the Tigers. He got off to a fantastic start, striking out the first two hitters that he faced. Grahovac then stepped to the plate having a pretty rough night, but hit another Aggie bomb to right-center for make it 7-2. After a walk, Fontenot would record a flyout to end the second consecutive 3-run inning for Texas A&M. He would not return after that. Final line: 1.0 IP / 1 hits / 1 runs / 2 Ks / 1 BB / 13 pitches (8 strikes, 62%) Danny Lachenmayer took over for the 7th looking to bounce back from some recent struggles. He had hit his only batter-faced in his previous 3 outings going back to game 3 at Tennessee. Tonight, he was very good. Aside from a 1-out single, the lefty struck out the side in his only inning of work. Final line: 1.0 IP / 1 hit / 0 runs / 3 Ks / 0 BB / 18 pitches (13 strikes, 72%) Connor Benge took over for the 8th to start with a clean inning, something he typically doesn’t see. He’s normally put in to put out fires and he’s been pretty good the past few weeks. He was great tonight, striking out the first two batters faced and then getting Grahovac down to a 1-2 count. Benge threw a very good slider that had him fooled, but the Aggie 1st baseman was able to throw his barrel at the ball to make soft contact and find open grass. Jay pulled him with a lefty coming up to bat, but it was another good performance for the right-handed flamethrower. Final line: 0.2 IP / 1 hit / 1 run / 2 Ks / 0 BBs / 14 pitches (10 strikes, 71%) With the left-handed hitting Sorrell coming up, Jay went to Ethan Plog for the matchup. After starting him 1-2, Plog threw 3 straight balls to allow the walk and that was it for him. Final line: 0.0 IP / 0 hits / 0 runs / 0 Ks / 1 BB / 6 pitches (2 strikes, 33%) With runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 outs, Jay went to Mavrick Rizy. On the second pitch, A&M 2nd baseman Chris Hacopian took a fastball to his face in what was a very scary moment. He had to leave the game with trainers. That loaded the bases and the very next pitch went to the backstop, bringing home the 8th Aggie run of the night. Rizy would eventually walk that hitter, before finally recording the final out with a groundout to Steven Milam. Rizy would not return after that. Final line: 0.1 IP / 0 hits / 0 runs / 0 Ks / 1 BBs / 1 HBP / 14 pitches (6 strikes, 43%) It was Reagan Ricken on the mound for the 9th after LSU had scored 2 runs in the 8th to make it a 8-4 game. Just 4 pitches in to the inning, the Aggies were back up by 6 runs after a double and Wilson’s second homerun of the game. Ricken then walked the next hitter on 4 pitches and Jay was out of the dugout to pull him from the game before the batter even got to 1st base. Final line: 0.0 IP / 2 hits / 2 runs / 0 Ks / 1 BB / 9 pitches (4 strikes, 44%) Jaden Noot has been seldom used this year, but he was called upon in the 9th. He came in and did his job, recording back to back groundouts and a pop out with an intentional walk in-between. Final line: 1.0 IP / 0 hits / 0 runs / 0 Ks / 1 int walk / 10 pitches (8 strikes, 80%) Hitting Cade Arrambide has been on fire going back to that 4 homerun game at Tennessee and he turned in another great night tonight. At DH, he went 3-4 with an RBI and a run scored. The RBI was a 2-out hit, which many of you know that Jay refers to as a “golden”, because that’s how valuable they are. Two of his singles were to the opposite field, which is great to see. So much of this lineup is pull-heavy this year, which is something Jay talked about in his post game press conference. Steven Milam delivered the only other multi-hit game for the Tigers. Both of his hits were extra base hits, including a solo homerun that tied the game at 1-1 in the 4th inning. He finished 2-4 with a double, as well. Derek Curiel, Chris Stanfield, Jake Brown, Omar Serna, and John Pearson each recorded a single hit. Pearson drew the only walk of the night for the Tiger lineup, while also providing one of the other two RBIs, along with Serna. Up Next LSU and Texas A&M will return tomorrow for game 2 with an adjusted first pitch. Originally scheduled for 7 pm, it has been moved up to 4:30 pm central with the threat of rain looming tomorrow night. The loss now drops the Tigers to 6-10 in conference play, while the Aggies improved to 10-5. William Schmidt will take the mound with his 4-3 record, holding a 3.22 ERA through 44.2 innings pitched. He’s struck out 63 while walking 18 batters. Texas A&M will counter with sophomore Aiden Sims, who Jay referred to as their best pitcher on the post-game radio show. Sims holds a record of 6-0 with an ERA of 3.56 through 48.0 innings pitched, while striking out 51 and walking 15. The Tigers are starting to enter must-win territory with their resume status and while losing either of the next two games doesn’t end their season, it’s going to get exponentially harder as they continue to dig themselves a deeper hole. Follow me on X for much more @DCBilliotJr
By David Billiot Jr April 17, 2026
Welcome back to the second edition of the statistical preview for LSU’s weekend opponent. There are two major changes this week. First, the rankings you see for each team are bases on SEC games ONLY. Last week was conference ranks that included all games played, but now that we’re halfway through the schedule, there is enough of a sample size that SEC games only can tell the full story. Second change is the inclusion of WHIP for the starting pitchers. For those that don’t know, WHIP stands for “walks + hits per inning pitched”. Basically, it’s how many guys a pitcher allows on base by his own doing, so it excludes runners that reach on errors. With that being said, please let me know if there is anything you’d like me to change or add going forward. My X account is listed below and my DMs are open, so feel free to reach out! Team Hitting Runs scored: 1st – 9.9 per game (LSU: 3rd – 7.1 per game) Batting average: 1st - .288 (LSU: 7th – .260) Doubles: 1st – 31 (LSU: 8th – 22) Homeruns: 2nd – 29 (LSU: T-6th – 24) On base %: 1st – .451 (LSU: T-5th – .409) Strikeouts: 15th – 121 (LSU: 12th – 137) Walks: 1st – 108 (LSU: 4th – 76) Hits: 1st – 11.2 per game (LSU: 6th – 8.7 per game) Stolen bases: 7th – 16 (LSU: 12th – 10) Team Pitching ERA: 15th – 6.94 (LSU: 11th – 5.94) Strikeouts: 15th – 123 (LSU: 2nd – 169) Walks: 12th – 55 (LSU: 3rd – 86) HRs allowed: 16th – 37 (LSU: 8th – 19) Hits allowed: 16th – 10.4 per game (LSU: 9th – 8.0 per game) Runs allowed: 14th – 6.8 per game (LSU: 13th – 6.7 per game) BA against: 16th – .300 (LSU: 7th – .242) Fielding: 4th – .979 (LSU: 16th – .963) Pitching Matchups Game 1 (Friday – 6:00 pm) Texas A&M – RS Jr LHP Shane Sdao: 3-2 record (9 starts) / 5.77 ERA / 48.1 IP / 1.53 WHIP / 58 Ks / 12 BBs LSU – Soph RHP Casan Evans: 2-1 record (9 starts) / 4.91 ERA / 47.2 IP / 1.36 WHIP / 68 Ks / 23 BBs Game 2 (Saturday – 7:00 pm) Texas A&M – Soph RHP Aiden Sims: 6-0 record (9 starts) / 3.56 ERA / 48.0 IP / 1.19 WHIP / 51 Ks / 15 BBs LSU – Soph RHP William Schmidt: 4-3 record (9 starts) / 3.22 ERA / 44.2 IP / 1.30 WHIP / 63 Ks / 18 BBs Game 3 (Sunday – 1:00 pm) Texas A&M – TBA LSU – TBA Top Hitters #13 Caden Sorrell – .368 BA / .456 OB% / 57 RBI / 45 R / 17 HR / 12 doubles / 19 BB / 38 K #9 Gavin Grahovac – .360 BA / .458 OB% / 49 RBI / 49 R / 10 HR / 11 doubles / 17 BB / 24 K #2 Nico Partida – .351 BA / .456 OB% / 37 RBI / 39 R / 11 HR / 7 doubles / 24 BB / 26 K #3 Jake Duer – .344 BA / .468 OB% / 36 RBI / 29 R / 4 HR / 10 doubles / 30 BB / 21 K #1 Terrence Kiel II – .290 BA / .442 OB% / 12 RBI / 32 R / 0 HR / 4 doubles / 20 BB / 13 K Follow me on X for much more @DCBilliotJr
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