New Orleans Breakers Playoff Scenarios. How Do They Get In?

Ethen Meyers • June 14, 2023

        The New Orleans Breakers are on the verge of turning a loss streak into an equal win streak. They started the season red hot on both sides of the ball jumping out to a 4-0 record, and then turnovers happened. The last two weeks those turnovers seemingly are being corrected, and their dominant performance 31-3 against the division opponent gave hope that they are getting back on track at the right time. Had they dropped either of the last two games, the playoff picture would be much harder to navigate. The Breakers sit in a spot that as a team you can only ask for, win and get in, but what if they don't win? Let's take a look at the other ways they can sneak in, but before we go there, here is the Seeding Tiebreakers for the USFL:

  1. Head-to-Head.
  2. Best division record.
  3. Strength of wins (Based on W-L records of opponents.).
  4. Highest points across season.
  5. Most touchdown across season.
  6. Coin toss.

        If you would like a tl;dr (too long, didn't read) of this, scroll down to the bottom for a quick recap!

Breakers Win.

        It is the most simple option, but not always the possible one. There are 4 teams who could win and still miss the playoffs by one game, which feels crazy to say but the North and their abysmal records really lined it up to be way open. For the Breakers? It doesn't matter. They win, they get in. It is the most simple path to the playoffs, and as an added bonus based on seeding, they could even steal the #1 spot from the Birmingham Stallions. If the Breakers beat the Gamblers and the Showboats beat the Stallions, New Orleans will take the #1 seed in the South, and the league. The first tie breaker would be head to head, which is split. The next goes to division, where the Breakers would hold a 1 game advantage over the Stallions and take the division title. There is currently no benefit of being the 1 seed outside of bragging rights, but pride is one hell of a drug.


Breakers lose, but Showboats lose?

        If the Breakers lose, it puts things a little muddy. In this scenario let's assume the Showboats also lose. That gives the Breakers and the Gamblers a tie. Breaking down the tie rules for the USFL the first tiebreaker is head to head, which is again split between the Breakers and Gamblers if the Breakers lose. Next, we would use division record, which would also be a tie.

        Now we are to strength of wins, which gets a little complicated but I won't bore you with the math. We cannot figure this out completely, as the season is not over but we can at least figure out if there is an advantage. For the scenario we will use the Breakers and Showboats losing. Breakers wins as follows; Maulers 3-6, Gamblers 6-4, Stallions 8-2, Generals 3-6, Panthers 3-6, Showboats 5-5. Gamblers wins as follows; Showboats 5-5, Stars 4-5, Stallions 8-2, Generals 3-6, Maulers 3-6, Breakers 6-4. That would leave the Breakers with a win strength record of 28-29 and the Gamblers with a win strength record of 29-28. The win the Gamblers have over the Stars compared to our win over the Panthers would give the Gamblers the win and the #2 seed, eliminating the Breakers from the playoffs here, however, that is only if the Stars beat the Panthers. If the Panthers win, it goes to #4, highest point total across the season. Before Week 10 The Breakers are at 220, and the Gamblers at 213 so if the Breakers do lose by more than 7, it goes to the Gamblers.

        But what if they lose by 7 exactly? I am glad you asked, lets jump into number 4 in the tiebreakers, most touchdowns. This does not specify any side of the ball, so we will assume it is across all facets of the game. The Breakers have 12 passing, 12 rushing, and 1 interception returned for a touchdown, the Gamblers have 9 passing and 16 rushing. Breakers 24, Gamblers 25. The Breakers Lose, Showboats lose is not looking great. In some weird turn of events the Gamblers could score 5 field goals only, and Breakers score a touchdown and go for 2. This would be a touchdown tie, and a loss by 7 exactly, which would go to a coin toss for the playoff berth. While the Breakers could lose by 6, and sneak in, or have the funky touchdown field goal dance, this is definitely not ideal as if we are aware of this, you can assume both coaches would be aware to and doing their best to make whatever needs to happen, happen.


Breaks Lose, Showboats win?

        This dives into tiebreakers again, a 3 way tie between the Breakers, Gamblers, and Showboats. We already slightly know where the Breakers and Gamblers sit from our previous scenario, but does adding the Showboats to the tie change anything? Starting with division, 3 way tie. Head to head, a 3 way tie. Great, we are back at math.  As a reminder, Breakers lose and Showboats win in this scenario make no changes to win strength for Breakers or Gamblers since it is just a win/loss swap for teams they beat. Breakers, 28-29 and Gamblers 29-28 which eliminates the Breakers, but the Panthers can still beat the Stars to make this a tie again at 30-28 between the Breakers and Gamblers. Let's see how the Showboats did win strength wise why don't we? Showboats wins as follows; Panthers 3-6, Breakers 6-4, Maulers 3-6, Gamblers 6-4, Generals 3-6, Stallions 7-3. This leaves the Show boats a win strength record of 28-29. Stars win? You guessed it. 3 way tie again.


        On to the next one, highest points. Heading into Week 10 Breakers are at 220, Gamblers are at 213, and the Showboats at 170. Again, in this scenario Breakers cannot lose by more than 7, and the Showboats need to score 50+ points for a good chance, let's assume the Showboats do not accomplish this (mainly because they would need 50 to TIE the Breakers and since the return of the USFL no team has surpassed 50 points in a game.) and it comes down to the Breakers and the Gamblers again. We revert back to the Breakers only losing by 6 and getting in, or losing by 7 exactly with a touchdown tie, or lose by 7 or more and be eliminated.

Recap? Recap.

        There are different ways for the Breakers to get in, but I will do a tl;dr (too long, didn't read) for anyone curious! I will number them from most ideal to least ideal.

  1. Breakers win, Stallions Lose. #1 seed belongs to Breakers, Stallions get #2.
  2. Breakers win, Stallions Win. #1 seed belongs to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  3. Breakers lose by 6 or fewer, Stallions win, and Stars win. #1 seed belongs to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  4. Breakers lose by 7 exactly with a score of 15(FGs only)-8(TD + 2pt conversion), Stallions win, Stars win, and Breakers win coin toss. #1 seed to Stallions, Breakers get #2.
  5. Scenarios 3 and 4, but with a Breakers loss, and a Showboats win.

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By Erik Trosclair September 17, 2025
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By Greyson Jenkins September 14, 2025
New Orleans Saints 21 - 26 San Francisco 49ers  What I was Looking for Following last week's game, where the offensive playcalling and time management appeared questionable, this team sought to bounce back on offense. In addition, the defense looked solid against the Kyler Murray-led Cardinals, so I wanted to see them look good against a 49ers team led by the average at best Mac Jones. The Notes I made before the game to look for were: How does Rattler look against a solid 49ers defense? How will Kellen Moore bounce back after a poorly called game 1? Does Juwan Johnson continue being a top target? How often does Brandon Staley blitz Mac? Rattler: Spencer Rattler had one noticeably bad missed touchdown to Olave on the first drive, but after that, he showed up and showed out. Rattler had his first multi-passing touchdown game of his career, finishing 25 of 34 for 207 yards and 3 touchdowns. This was by far Rattler’s best game of his career, and I believe this performance should encourage both the team and fans about his potential future as the starting quarterback. As I mentioned, the start was iffy, with him missing a wide-open touchdown to Olave behind him (should’ve been caught), and multiple drops by Juwan Johnson. He then went out and finished the game strong, at one point having 13 consecutive completions. Rattler looked confident in himself and his receivers, and also used his legs in multiple situations to help the team. All in all, this was a B+ performance by him, and if he can build off of it, it could completely change the team’s rebuilding decisions. Moore: I was avidly down on Kellen Moore as a playcaller last week, as he abandoned the run game and giving Alvin Kamara touches in the second half. This week, it appeared that Kellen Moore realized Alvin Kamara is a crucial playmaker in this offense, as he gave Alvin 21 carries spread throughout the game, which resulted in 99 yards. In addition, the passing game seemed much more diverse in depth of target as well as the routes being run, which is definitely encouraging in terms of his confidence in Rattler. In the future, I want to see Moore continue to improve each week as well as show some emotion on the sidelines, something I feel is lacking at the moment (and reminds me of Dennis Allen too much). Juwan Johnson: Juwan Johnson was the leading receiver last week, so I wanted to see if that would continue this week. He ended up being the 2nd leading target for Rattler, with 9 targets being just behind Olave’s 10. Outside of the 2 horrific drops, which justifiably made fans get the torches ready, Juwan was very productive and ended up bringing in a great touchdown reception. It appears he and Rattler do have a great connection brewing, and I would love for the redzone targets to continue this season. Brandon Staley Blitz Rate: The Saints blitzed just over 35% last week, and the defense seemed to get pretty consistent pressure against the Cardinals. This would lead one to believe that Brandon Staley would blitz an offense led by Mac Jones (who struggles against pressure), right??? Wrong. Throughout this game, I found myself dumbfounded by the lack of blitzing, and it seemed as though Mac Jones had all the time in the world to find at least one receiver down the field with lots of room around them. The worst part about this is that the Saints failed to get out of 3rd down situations, with two long 3rd down conversions on the 49ers' final touchdown drive, where Mac Jones faced zero pressure. With Chase Young missing from this DL, I knew Cam Jordan wouldn’t be able to replicate his 1.5 sack performance from last week, but I just wish Staley knew this as well. I hope Staley sees the lack of pressure this front 4 got for most of this one, and that he brings more pressure next week against the Seahawks. The Offense The Good: Alvin Kamara is still Alvin Kamara. As I previously mentioned, he had a great game on the ground, but also back as a pass catcher with 6 receptions for 21 yards. Spencer Rattler was also great on the ground, as he picked up multiple clutch 1st downs with his legs, making defenders miss tackles in the process. The Passing game looked to have significantly improved, with routes being more diverse and the ball being spread out to 7 different receivers. I love the confidence Rattler has in his guys, and I would also love to see more Vele targets in the redzone after his touchdown today. Finally, the last thing that is great to see is that the Saints went 3/3 in the redzone today, something that will be huge this season if they can continue succeeding at a high clip in that area. The Bad: The Saints' offense had more sloppy moments again today, with penalties bringing back 1st downs, easy balls being dropped, and big losses on early downs. Kellen Moore seemed to call a better game, but I hate that he went away from tempo, which was working wonders for Rattler and the offense. The offense struggled to convert on 3rd down, only being able to do so on 36% of them. Finally, although Kelvin Banks and the offensive line looked solid today, Banks and Fuaga both got beaten on crucial downs on the last two drives, something you don’t want to see from the two first-round picks. Something that also belongs technically in the bad column, but I see more as unlucky than anything, is that Alvin Kamara lost a fumble on a bang-bang play. I won’t hold it against him, as I’ve seen similar plays get ruled incomplete after review multiple times when watching NFL games. The Defense The Good: The Saints' defense looked solid to start the game, forcing a quick 3 and out after the Saints' offense stalled in 49ers territory. In addition, this defense stood up after struggling for the majority of the game after that first possession, by forcing two crucial stops in the 4th quarter. Carl Granderson continues to be a crucial piece for this defense in the absence of Chase Young, finishing the game with 2 sacks and now being tied for the NFL sack leader title. The safety play again by Justin Reid felt like a great piece of this defense, as he played great in the run game and was doing a good job communicating with the younger DBs around him. Kool-Aid McKinstry seemed to have a better outing this week, something the young corner can hopefully build on next week, going against a solid receiver group for the Seahawks. The Saints also forced their first turnover of the season, with Chris Rumph II having a huge strip-sack in the 3rd quarter. The Bad: After the pressures accrued early again in the game, the pressure felt non-existent in the second half, and Brandon Staley seemed to completely abandon all blitz packages. Alontae Taylor and Isaac Yiadom struggled massively in this one, with Alontae Taylor blowing a coverage on Christian McCaffrey, allowing a touchdown before the half, and Isaac Yiadom simply was picked on early and often throughout the game. The Saints need to consider Lincoln Riley starting over Yiadom, as the Saints will miss out on a compensatory pick if they continue with Yiadom this season. There were numerous big down plays that you could tell the 49ers would design to attack Yiadom as a weakness, and it worked wonders. In conclusion, I was extremely discouraged by the cornerback group, and I hope Staley goes back to blitzing at a higher rate next week against Sam Darnold. Special Teams: No positives jumped out to me with this group; the return game was solid, but punting seemed hit or miss by Kroeger, and Blake Grupe again missed another field goal. If Grupe makes that field goal early, the Saints would have possibly only needed a field goal on the final drive. Closing and Team MVPs This game felt like another game the Saints took themselves out of, and not one where the opposing team beat them. I did love the sparks that showed on offense, and if Spencer Rattler can build off of this and continue to play at this level, I can say that I’d feel okay if the Saints decided to go with another position than quarterback in the upcoming draft. Offensive MVP: Spencer Rattler Defensive MVP: Carl Granderson Special Teams MVP: NONE
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