Louisiana returns to the field this Saturday following a bye week as the Ragin’ Cajuns prepare to host the South Alabama Jaguars at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium. Kickoff for the Louisiana Salutes game is set for 4pm, with the game airing on ESPN+.

Oddsmakers currently favor the Cajuns by 7.5 points. Both teams enter the matchup at 2-2 in Sun Belt Conference play, looking to keep their conference championship hopes alive as the regular season enters its final month.

The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

Louisiana has endured a frustrating stretch over the past month, suffering heartbreaking losses to Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss after surrendering last minute go-ahead scores. Seven additional points across those two games would have the Cajuns sitting at 7-1 instead of 5-3. But, of course, football isn’t a game of what-ifs.

Offensively, Louisiana has been productive for the most part, averaging 30.1 points and nearly 383 yards per game. The Cajuns have leaned heavily on their rushing attack, averaging nearly 190 yards per contest, with quarterback Lunch Winfield playing a significant role in that ground production. UL’s passing attack has continued to improve as of lately after a slow start to the season. Winfield had a career high 299 passing yards against Southern Miss prior to the bye.

Winfield leads the team in both passing and rushing yards, recording 1,452 passing yards and 470 rushing yards, along with 15 total touchdowns. His dual-threat capabilities have created problems for opposing defenses, particularly when the Cajuns establish their ground game. UL has also been efficient in scoring territory, converting nearly 97% of its red-zone opportunities into points, the fourth highest mark in the country.

Defensively, Louisiana has been considerably stronger than its upcoming opponent. The Cajuns are allowing just over 317 yards and 21 points per game, although their inability to get crucial stops late against Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss has proven costly. The same goes for the offense who have been inconsistent with execution and turnovers in those situations.

The late bye week provided an opportunity for Louisiana to regroup and potentially regain some personnel, including safety Collin Jacob, who has missed the previous three games and part of the Arkansas State contest with an arm injury. Jacob is expected to play on Saturday and is on the official depth chart as a starter.

Kneaux the Opponent: South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama has experienced its own struggles lately as well, dropping consecutive games to Marshall and Louisiana Tech. The Jaguars have particularly struggled to sustain offensive production in the second half, including being held scoreless after halftime in their 35-20 loss to Louisiana Tech.

However, the offense overall this season has demonstrated just how dangerous it can be. Before their recent skid, the Jaguars scored 52 points against ULM and 56 against Arkansas State. Much like Louisiana, South Alabama operates a run-oriented offense capable of generating explosive plays. Averaging nearly 419 yards per game, including 213 on the ground, the Jaguars have been among the nation’s more productive rushing teams.

Leading the ground attack are Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin, who have combined for 1,128 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Their effective two-back attack has proven difficult for opponents to contain. Quarterback Jared Hollins has thrown for 1,195 yards and nine touchdowns, although his 52.6% completion rate suggests opportunities for Louisiana’s defense to disrupt the passing game.

And when South Alabama does reach the red zone, it has generally capitalized, scoring on 28 of 31 trips for an impressive 90% conversion rate. Defensively, however, the Jaguars have been vulnerable. South Alabama allows nearly 33 points and 402 yards per game, including more than 245 passing yards per contest.

The Jaguars will also be without their leading tackler, safety Cole Blaylock, who has been ruled out for Saturday’s contest. Blaylock has recorded 46 tackles this season, making his absence another potential challenge for an already struggling defense.

Players to Watch For

Louisiana QB Lunch Winfield: The dual-threat quarterback remains the heart and soul of Louisiana’s offense. With 470 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, Winfield’s mobility could present significant problems for South Alabama both on the ground and through the air, particularly if the Jaguars struggle to contain the edges.

Louisiana WR KeDarius Wade: Wade leads the Cajuns with 279 receiving yards and has emerged as one of Winfield’s primary downfield targets. Going up against a defense that’s allowed more than 245 passing yards per game, he could have opportunities to make explosive plays.

South Alabama RBs Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin: The Jaguars’ two leading rushers have each surpassed 500 yards this season. This game will be a tale of really good run offense versus really good run defense. Containing two explosive running backs will be crucial for a Louisiana defense that allows just 127 rushing yards per game.

South Alabama QB Jared Hollins: Hollins has shown the ability to stretch defenses vertically, but he also has struggled with consistency. He enters Saturday with nine passing touchdowns and four interceptions. UL is top 40 in the country in passing yards allowed, so this could be a challenge for Hollins in what will be the best secondary he’s faced all year, but still a matchup to watch.

South Alabama WR Anthony Eager: Eager has emerged as a dangerous scoring threat, recording six receiving touchdowns while averaging more than 22 yards per reception. He caught seven passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns against Louisiana Tech last weekend.

Keys to the Game

1. Dominate the ground game

It’s the key every game basically. Both offenses rely heavily on rushing production, making the battle in the trenches especially important. UL must limit South Alabama’s two-back rushing attack while allowing Winfield and the Cajuns’ running backs to control the tempo offensively. This game will likely come down to who can run it better.

2. Take advantage of South Alabama’s secondary

The Jaguars have struggled to defend the pass this season, and the absence of safety Cole Blaylock will likely add more to those concerns. Louisiana should look for opportunities to attack downfield and capitalize on favorable matchups through the air. It’s also an opportunity for the Cajuns pass offense to keep the momentum rolling after throwing for nearly 300 yards against Southern Miss a couple weeks ago.

3. Win the turnover battle

South Alabama has forced 11 turnovers this season, making ball security important for Louisiana, who earlier in the season struggled with. On the other side, the Cajuns must pressure Hollins into uncomfortable situations and capitalize on any mistakes.

4. Start strong...FINISH STRONG

Perhaps the biggest key for Louisiana is avoiding another late-game collapse. The Cajuns have surrendered fourth-quarter leads in two of their last three games and cannot afford another missed opportunity. With both teams fighting to stay in the Sun Belt West race, execution in the final quarter could also ultimately determine the outcome.

Final Score Prediction: Louisiana 34, South Alabama 24

Major Applewhite’s Jaguars team will certainly put up a fight in Lafayette on Saturday afternoon. But with UL’s success at home this season (4-0 at home), getting Collin Jacob back on defense, and an offense that had a productive passing game the last time they played, the cards on the table say the Cajuns should play well enough to keep South Alabama in check.

These are two programs that absolutely have to win this game in order to keep themselves in the mix for the conference championship. With Louisiana Tech leading the SBC West 4-0 and then a big clump of teams at 2-2 (including UL and South Alabama), the loser of this game will have to kiss those title game hopes goodbye. That said, it should be a dogfight at Cajun Field.

I expect Louisiana to expose South Alabama’s secondary and the defense as a whole, while also neutralizing the Jaguars’ run game in a strength versus strength matchup. But ultimately, like I had for all but one of UL’s conference games this season, it will come down to who can finish the game stronger, and it’ll likely be determined by who can run the ball more efficiently.

Should be a good one in Lafayette. Be there, be loud, wear black, and Geaux Cajuns!