New Blood

Louisiana Tech and Troy have never played each other in the sport of football. While typically I enjoy framing the introductions to my preview with history, there is none to present here. This game is a meeting of programs that have never seen each other before. An opportunity to manufacture an entirely fresh rivalry in the western division from scratch. Especially since this game comes on Troy’s homecoming weekend. While Tech searches for a way to extend their conference lead and make their case for postseason success, the Trojans will be out for blood following an exciting stolen game in Harrisonburg. A win for Troy this weekend could potentially return them to the conversation of the conference title game. A win for Tech would put one of their most difficult conference games behind them and allow for a defiant return home in preparation for the final real rival of the year.

Will the “Goose” be Loose?

For Troy's first five games this year, their offense was led by signal caller Will “Goose” Crowder who earned his nickname in his younger years following an obsession with Top Gun. Crowder managed over 200 passing yards in four of these five opening games and even had 145 rushing yards in Troy’s 55-34 win over Southern Miss. While not over the top, Crowder proved to be a favorable manager of the Trojan offense. This being said, Troy was falling far short of expectations early in the year. After a 2-1 start and a close loss to ranked Mizzou, Troy went on the road to play a Utah State team that had one win and an opening loss to FCS Idaho State. Troy had given the Aggies their first win of the year, and even after they returned home to beat the one-win Southern Miss squad, Crowder would be unable to finish Troy’s road matchup with ULL. Crowder would be injured in the game against the Ragin’ Cajuns and Troy would fall yet again 6-33. Goose attempted to return to play against ULM the following week and what resulted was the provision of the Warhawks’ first win of the year. Troy’s most recent win over JMU came on the road and as a shock to many, with backup Tucker Kilcrease leading the way in that win. Now, after even more time to rest, Goose is slated to return and lead his team to an attempted salvage of Troy’s season.

Troy’s offense has struggled overall regardless of which QB has been at the helm. The team ranks bottom 30 in offensive success rate and bottom six in offensive passing success rate. They are near the worst in football at scoring when they reach opposing teams 40-yard line and are rocking -0.01 predicted points added on passes. They do attempt to rush more than they do in the pass and while they are certainly more explosive when rushing, they still are not exceptional in success rate and predicted points added. Troy is quite good at protecting their football, however and has only turned the ball over 10 times this year. Unfortunately, they are taking on a team in Louisiana Tech that is doing even better with just eight turnovers and a single interception from QB Blake Baker. 

The Fear Factor 

Troy may have been unable to succeed offensively at times and have thus failed to keep up with opponents but one thing the Trojans have done well most of this year is defense. There have been only three out of eight games in which Troy allowed more than 21 points to be scored against them. So far Troy has held opponents to just 39.5% success rate, which  is 52nd in the nation and are also top 22 in forced turnovers. Their seven interceptions is top 45 in the country and they’re holding opposing QB’s to just 60.4% completion rate so far, a top 55 metric. They do succeed at stopping the run a tad more than the pass but do so whilst still giving up 4.69 yards per carry. 

If you are not impressed by Troy’s defense having been given their middle-of-the-pack stats, at least begin to fear the name “Donnie Smith.” Smith is not Troy’s leading tackler by any means, nor does he have any interceptions. Smith plays in a Bandit position where it is almost impossible for teams to assess his role in the field of play. He has been described as a defensive back, edge, tackle, and maybe more accurately, an outside linebacker. In reality, Donnie Smith is anything and everything you can be on defense, standing at 6’4” 234 lbs. This year, Donnie has already recorded a team leading seven sacks, two forced fumbles and six passes defended and is slated to beat his 11 sacks earned just last year. 

Conclusions

Homecoming in Troy will be a scary environment for the Bulldogs no matter the stats and records reflect. The Trojans are averaging the third highest attendance in the Sun Belt with 24,000+ per game and there is sure to be a fantastic atmosphere in Veteran’s Memorial Stadium. On a more hopeful note, after being ruled out for many weeks amidst a turf toe injury, Dylone Brooks may truly return to play for Louisiana Tech in this game. Last time Brooks took the field for a full game, he rushed for 119 yards on seven carries and had another 81 yards on two receptions. We’ll see how he will be integrated into the offense with the emergence of so much firepower for the Bulldogs in Nathan Young’s scheme. The newest chance for proven success has arrived for Louisiana Tech and all there is left to do is win in Troy, Alabama! Go Dogs!!!