Where do we go from here?

A three step process to fix the New Orleans Saints

         Remember during the summer when we all had high hopes for the Saints?  Man, those were the good ole days.  Weren’t they?  The franchise led us to believe that the best course of action, after Sean Payton’s retirement, was consistency and continuity.  Mickey Loomis hammered home the message that hiring Dennis Allen as Payton’s successor was best for the future of the franchise, because they had built a winning culture and program and hiring from within was the best path to maintaining said culture. 

         After what many Saints fans believe to have been a sham of a head coaching search, Loomis and company hired Dennis Allen as the teams next head coach.  Many fans, I included, questioned hiring someone who had never had any success as a head coach, but we believed in Mickey and were along for the ride. 

         Fast forward to December, not even the end of Dennis Allen’s first regular season, and the team and franchise are a complete disaster.  The culture Mickey spoke of that took Sean all those years to build?  Completely undone before the end of Allen’s first season.  The Dennis Allen experiment has been a complete and utter failure.  Patterns from his previous failures as a head coach have carried over to his current stint with the Saints and signs of change have yet to be seen.  The Dennis Allen experiment needs to come to an end.

Where do we go from here?

         Let me start by saying this, I do not think that Mickey Loomis will make the right decision and move on from Dennis Allen in the off-season.  As my podcast partner Patty and I mentioned on our latest episode, the more likely scenario is that Pete Carmichael is the scapegoat and is let go while Dennis Allen gets another season.  Anyone who’s paid attention to this season can tell that this team’s issues run deeper than the offensive coordinator.

         With that said, let’s imagine Mickey comes to his senses and moves on from DA.  What are the possible scenarios that could follow?  Overall, there are two paths the organization could follow.

         1. Complete rebuild

         2. Franchise “reset”

         I am not someone who believes in completely tearing down a team, selling all your assets, and completely starting over.  I believe once a team commits to that direction, it’s hard to get off that path.  I believe the more logical path is to move forward with a “reset” of sorts.  Similar to the approach the organization took after the 7-9 stretches.

         At this moment, the franchise is in an atrocious situation.  The Saints currently have the second oldest roster in the NFL, no franchise quarterback, and no first round pick.  And in my “reset” scenario, you can add no head coach to that list.  So, if the team takes the retool or reset approach, what are the steps to getting this franchise back on track to being a contender?

Step 1) Fire Dennis Allen & bring in a new coaching staff

         As I mentioned, the Saints are in their current predicament because of how Mickey Loomis and Gayle Benson went about hiring the teams next head coach after Sean Payton abandoned the mess he helped create.  So, to right that wrong, fire Dennis Allen, conduct a TRUE and THOROUGH head coaching search, and allow him to bring in his own staff and begin to attempt to lead this franchise back down the right path.

         What should the team look for in their next head coach?  Personally, I would prefer the head coach to be an offensive-minded coach with a track record of a successful and creative offense.  However, I could be convinced to give the right defensive minded coach a chance.  A younger coach would be ideal, but a veteran coach could also work.  The key is bringing in someone who seems to have the personality to run a program and build a culture.  A culture that represents the city of New Orleans.  Let’s look at four current coordinators that I think would be interesting candidates.  There are certainly more possibilities, but these are a few of my favorites in no specific order.

• Ben Johnson - Lions Offensive Coordinator

         This is name that has somewhat come out of left field this year.  Almost overnight, the Lions have the best the offense in the NFL in 2022.  What makes that feat more impressive is that the offense is led by Jared Goff.  Goff isn’t an awful quarterback, despite what social media might lead you to believe, but he’s certainly far from elite.  Given the Saints possible quarterback situation next year, bringing in a guy who has shown he can have success with that level of talent at the position is intriguing.  Johnson’s offense is very creative and fun to watch.  Just this past week you can see him scheming up explosive plays to get receivers wide open down the field.  He also does a fantastic job of getting his two running backs involved, which I feel has been a struggle for the Saints this year. 

         Johnson is only 36 years old, so the team would be setting themselves up for a decade or more if they hit on Johnson.  Now, there are some risks involved with Johnson.  He has no head coaching experience, so we aren’t sure whether he can run an entire program or not.  However, his personality would lead you to believe that he can relate well with players, not to mention he’s learning under the ultimate players coach Dan Campbell.  He’s also shot up the coaching ranks quickly, so there isn’t as much of a proven track record with Johnson.  However, in my opinion I think he’d be worth the risk.

• Eric Bieniemy - Chiefs Offensive Coordinator

         The fan favorite from last offseason.  Unlike Ben Johnson, track record isn’t an issue with Bieniemy.  I don’t think I have to spend as much time on Bieniemy, because we all know his resumé.  The Chiefs have had one of the best offenses in the league since Bieniemy took over there.  He’s learned under the wing of Andy Reid, who is one of the most successful coaches in NFL history, so he’s seen what it takes to be successful at the NFL level.  I do question whether he has the personality required to run a franchise, but truthfully, that’s only because I haven’t heard him speak much.  However, we have seen him get into it with Mahomes on the sideline before, and as minuscule as that may seem, I think there’s something to that.  I think it shows he’s comfortable with holding any player accountable.

         Bieniemy is 53, so the Saints would be getting him on the back end of his career, but they could still get a solid decade out of him at the very least.  The one question I think many of us fans have about EB is, why hasn’t he become a head coach yet?  Like I mentioned, the track record is there.  There are not many coordinators around the league with a stronger resumé.  The Saints spent 8 hours interviewing him last off-season, which leads me to believe he may have been the only serious contender for DA’s position.  So, if the position were to become available again, I think he would be one the first phone calls made.  The bonus with Bieniemy is that he is a New Orleans native and would understand what this culture is all about. 

• Ken Dorsey - Bills Offensive Coordinator

         Coming into this season, Ken Dorsey would’ve been my number one choice for the Saints.  Other candidates have emerged however, so it’s not that simple of a choice for me anymore.  But I do still love me some Ken Dorsey.

         Dorsey was the Bills passing game coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2021, which led to the Bills having the 9th ranked passing offense, 3rd overall offense and ultimately Josh Allen’s breakout season.  In 2020, Josh Allen was wildly inconsistent, but Ken Dorsey helped turn him into a top 5 quarterback in 2021.  In 2022, Dorsey took over as the Bill Offensive coordinator and built an offense around Josh Allen.  This year the Bills have the 4th ranked offense overall, 3rd ranked passing offense, and the 7th ranked rushing offense. 

         What ultimately makes Ken Dorsey attractive to me is the role he played in Josh Allen’s development.  Not only Josh Allen, but also Cam Newton’s development as he was the quarterbacks coach in Carolina during that time.  As we all know, the Saints will likely have a rookie quarterback take over the offense in the next year or two, so having a head coach that has experience with a young quarterback is important.  It is so important for coaches these days to build offenses AROUND their quarterbacks, and Dorsey has shown the ability to do just that.

• DeMeco Ryans - 49ers Defensive Coordinator

         I know.  I know.  I, along with many people, believe that offensive head coaches are the better option to run a team in today’s NFL.  But hear me out.  I think DeMeco Ryans could be the exception.

         I don’t have a lot of stats to throw out there for DeMeco Ryans, but all you need to do is look at the 49ers defense. Ryans took over as the defensive coordinator in 2021, and the Niners ended the season with the 10th ranked defense in the league.  This year, the Niners have one of the best defenses I can remember in recent history.  They are only giving up 15 points per game and are truly dominant. 

         To be honest, I don’t have much more to say about Ryans.  Generally, I wouldn’t even give a thought to another defensive head coach after what Dennis Allen has done.  However, some of the best coaches in the league are defensive coaches: John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott, Bill Belichick, Mike Tomlin, Pete Carroll, and Mike Vrabel.  The key would obviously be for him to find a solid offensive coordinator to run that aspect of the team, and there are plenty of good options out there.

         I believe DeMeco Ryans would bring an attitude and swagger back to a franchise that has so clearly lost the culture it once had. 

Step 2) Turn your assets into more assets

• Sean Payton 

         So, turning your assets into more assets starts with one thing, trading Sean Payton.  Yes, he is an asset.  As much as I wish the rumors of the Saints and Payton reuniting were true, I can’t see it happening.  Like I mentioned, I don’t believe that Dennis Allen is going anywhere. 

         Back to trading Payton.  Which teams are most likely to be in the running for Payton?  If you had asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have said the Chargers were a forgone conclusion.  The attraction of the location and young franchise quarterback would have been impossible for Sean to turn down.  However, Brandon Staley may have saved his job with the Chargers performance in the back end of the season, but if he were to get fired, they would be at the top of my list.  Other possible franchises that could go after Payton, in my opinion, would be the Broncos, Cardinals, Panthers, Colts and Rams.

         At this point in time, the only team we know for a fact that is going to interview him is the Broncos.  Which leads us to the topic of compensation.

         I’ve tried to tell myself that the compensation for Sean is going to be less than most anticipate, but that’s because I’m choosing to not be let down.  However, a report from Ian Rapoport today (January 7th), say that the Saints have told the Broncos they want a “first round pick and more.”  If a package of multiple picks that includes a first-round pick is the starting point for Sean Payton, then the Saints could jumpstart their retooling process.

         So, let’s say the Saints get a late 1st round pick this year, a 3rd round pick this year, plus a couple picks in future drafts.  That would be a great return and allow you to possibly hold onto players you thought you might have to move.

• Trading Players

         Speaking of moving players, that is part two of trading your assets.  This part gets tricky because this is where the difference in rebuilding and retooling takes place.  If you move too many players, you enter a full rebuild.  Which isn’t necessarily a bad thing, per say, but I don’t believe it’s a necessary move for the Saints to make. 

         Retooling is the direction to go, in my opinion.  The roster is still extremely talented, but it’s a roster that is aging and one with a few holes to fill.  The Saints have the second oldest roster in the league, so getting younger is a necessity.  They also have a few holes that need to be filled at certain positions, but we’ll get to that later.

         I think when it comes to trading players, the roster can be broken down into three categories: Untouchables, would trade for the right price, open for business.  I’m not going to list every player, obviously.  Just the important ones.  I’d also like to point out that I’m not an expert on the salary cap, so I’m not taking into consideration the salary cap implications of trading certain players.  This is all hypothetical.

• Untouchables 

         These are players that I would not trade under any circumstances.  In my opinion, these players are young, top tier at their positions, or players who are talented and are of value based on cheap contracts. 

• Pete Werner
• Marshon Lattimore
• Kaden Ellis
• Alonte Taylor
• Chris Olave
• Rashid Shaheed
• Trevor Penning
• Eric McCoy

• Would trade for the right price

         These are guys that I, personally, don’t want to move, but I’ve seen their names floated around by the fan base.  Now, when I say “the right price,” I mean the package for them would have to be greater than expected.  I think these players still provide value to your roster and keep you out of the rebuilding stage.

• Alvin Kamara
• Cam Jordan

• Open for business

         The following guys are guys that I would either be calling teams and offering them in trades, or guys I would listen to calls for.  To be clear, I think these players are still good players with value, but to get something decent in return, you must give up good players.  I’m also not saying that I would trade all these players but trading one or two could get you the picks you need in return to assist in retooling.

• Demario Davis
• David Onyemata
• Andrus Peat
• Cesar Ruiz
• Ryan Ramczyk
• Payton Turner
• Michael Thomas

         I want to follow that up, first and foremost, by making it known that trading (or releasing) Michael Thomas would crush my soul.  But I understand that it may be what’s best for both parties. 

         Some names that I feel I may get some push back on are Alvin, Cam, Demario, and Ramczyk.  I understand the hesitancy to want to trade any of these guys as they were massively important to the team’s recent success.  But we need to learn to take emotion out of these situations.

         When it comes to Alvin and Cam, I think they still have tremendous value or won’t be easily replaceable.  Sure, running backs can be a dime a dozen, but running backs like Alvin Kamara are not.  I disagree when people say he’s completely fallen off.  Of course, he’s not what he was in his first few years, that comes with age, but I think the offensive scheme is more to blame for his lack of production.  We’ve seen him still have the burst and balance we’re accustomed to.  Now, if you can get anything close to what the Panthers got for CMC, I think you pull the trigger.  Some deals are impossible to say no to.

         With Cam, I think his age will make the return for him not worth losing what he can still bring to the table.  There’s something to be said to having someone with his longevity with the franchise on the roster.  Having a “Saints lifer” could speak volumes to other young guys that get drafted here.  Secondly, I can’t make the argument to trade a player who was the only productive player at his position.  Marcus Davenport and Payton Turner have not lived up to being the replacement for Cam Jordan.  Instead, Cam has constantly outperformed both.  Not having a proven replacement makes Cam CLOSE to untouchable, but again, if someone offers you a deal too good to refuse, take it and figure the rest out later.

         This brings me to Demario.  Another player that I ideally wouldn’t want to lose.  His energy and leadership are second to none, but his play took a step back this year (ironic that this was the year he made his first pro bowl), and there are clear replacements on the roster in Kaden Ellis and Pete Werner.  Trading Demario while you can still get a solid return for him may be a smart move for the Saints.

 Step 3) Revitalize the roster

         So, the Saints make the trades to get assets and free up some cap space in the process, what’s next?  The final step to the retooling process is to revitalize the roster.  Take the assets you just received and use them to get younger and fill in the gaps.  What are the gaps?  I’m glad you asked.  This is how I view the Saints needs as of right now.

Side note - I’m operating under the assumption that Michael Thomas will no longer be on the team, since the contract restructure leads me to believe that will be the case

         1) QB

         2) Defensive Line

         3) Running back

         4) Safety

         5) Wide Receiver

• Addressing the quarterback position

         Filling the void at quarterback this offseason could be difficult.  This year’s draft class is not very deep at the quarterback position, so even if the Saints were to get a late 1st round pick for Payton, would it be worth taking a swing on one of these guys?  I am of the belief that teams should draft a quarterback every year, whether it be 1st round or 7th round.  You never know what you’ll stumble into.  So, if a guy like Hendon Hooker falls to the late 2nd round or 3rd round and the Saints can use on of the picks they acquired to draft him, then I would be in favor of that.  But with next year’s quarterback class expected to be much better, I prefer that they spend any early picks on defensive line and fill the void at quarterback next year with a veteran player that has the potential to lead the team to playoff run.  A guy like Derek Carr would be perfect for a team in the Saints position.  I’d also bring back Andy Dalton as a backup. 

         There’s also the Lamar Jackson situation.  In this scenario, the Saints have fired Dennis Allen and brought in a new head coach and offensive mind.  To be honest, even in a scenario where the Saints keep Dennis Allen, I think it could be possible they bring in a new offensive coordinator.  If the Saints bring in a creative offensive mind, and the completely unlikely scenario of Lamar Jackson becoming a free agent occurs, the Saints should do everything in their power to bring him to New Orleans.  I understand Lamar’s limitations and the risk that comes with his style of play.  But adding a quarterback of that caliber into a creative scheme would instantly make the Saints contenders again.  But again, that scenario is highly highly unlikely.

• Fixing the defensive line

         While quarterback may be the biggest need for the roster, I believe many of the Saints assets this offseason should go towards fixing the defensive line.  The Saints already have already spent a ton of money and draft capital on the defensive line in recent years, but the approach hasn’t gone as planned.  Marcus Davenport and Payton Turner were unproductive and unavailable.  David Onyemata took a major step back, and Cam Jordan is entering the final years of his career.  Good football teams are built from the inside out, meaning, you start with the offensive and defensive lines.  In the past, the Saints defensive was so dominant, because of their ability to make teams one dimensional by stopping the run and by getting pressure with just their front four.  Neither of those things happened this past year.  Obtaining players that can come in and make an immediate impact in the run game and finally take some of the pressure off Cam Jordan when it comes to getting pressure on the quarterback is essential this offseason. 

• Taking the load off AK

         The other major move I’d like to see the Saints make this offseason is to draft another top running back that can come in and immediately take some of the load off Alvin Kamara.

         Alvin Kamara was at his best when Sean Payton would use him consistently and creatively in the receiving game; however, once Alvin got his big pay day, Payton (and now Pete) made him one dimensional.  I constantly find myself questioning the logic of paying a guy for his ability to excel at two positions, but then taking away one of those abilities.

         Sure, when Mark Ingram left, Kamara was expected to get an increased workload.  That is completely understandable.  However, I believe his workload became too heavily weighted towards the running game.  I feel that whoever the Saints have running the offense next year needs to make it a point to get Karma more involved and more use in the roles he used to excel in.

         The best way to do that is to bring in young fresh legs who will be able to complement Kamara and could be an every down back himself.  Spending early draft capital on a player like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs would not only give the Saints the ability to let Alvin be Alvin but would also extend his career.  If they prefer to not spend such high draft picks on the position, a guy like local legend Tyjae Spears could also do the trick. 

Wrapping this up

         I know I’ve said a lot in this article, and so many words may make the plan may seem complicated.  But it’s not.  For the Saints to get back to being a competitive franchise, it boils down to them bringing in a coach that can establish a winning culture, hiring someone who will make the most of their talent with a new creative offense, and acquiring assets to revitalize the roster by getting young and filling the voids.

         As I mentioned multiple times, it’s highly unlikely that Mickey Loomis will pull the trigger and move on from Dennis Allen which puts a damper on this offseason and the plan I just laid out.  However, there is still a path for success even if Dennis Allen is retained. 

         If Dennis Allen can show he learned from his first season and work with Mickey to bring in a new offensive coordinator and use steps two and three to get his defense back to the standard we’ve come to expect under him, then the Saints can still be a very good football team.  While he may never be the best option, stringing together these wins at the end of the season gives me a slight bit of hope that Allen and the Saints can work.  Allen being retained may create more of an uphill battle on the path back to a Super Bowl, but it doesn’t necessarily mean all hope is lost.