Going… Going… GONE!!!

David Rainey • July 18, 2022

Predicting the Home Run Derby


        Monday night, eight of Major League Baseball’s best long ball hitters will swing for the fences to determine this year’s Home Run Derby Champion! Let me clear something up quickly, it will be seven of the current best home run hitters, and one all-time great hitter that has no business being in the bracket.  Those eight contestants are: Phillies’ left fielder Kyle Schwarber, Nationals’ (for now) right fielder Juan Soto, Guardians’ third baseman José Ramírez, Ranger’s shortstop Corey Seager, Mariners’ center fielder Julio Rodríguez, Braves’ right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., Cardinals’ first baseman (the all-time great I mentioned) Albert Pujols and two-time defending champion, Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso.


        These eight men will face off in a single-elimination bracket to determine this year’s champion.  Pete Alonso, who has won the last two Derbies, is the odds-on favorite at +200.  He is followed by Kyle Schwarber at +300, with Pujols having the longest odds at +1800.  See, I’m not the only one who believes Albert Pujols shouldn’t be in this event, but I digress.  Let’s dive into the bracket.


The bracket looks like this! We’re going to go matchup by matchup.

ROUND 1


Kyle Schwarber (+300) v. Albert Pujols (+1800)

        Kyle Schwarber.  That’s it.  That’s the analysis.


        Fine, I’ll elaborate.  But it’s only because I respect the player Albert Pujols has been in his career.  Now let me preface this by saying, I am fully aware that this may come back to bite and Pujols may win this whole thing.  Karma has a funny way of doing that.

        Anyways, I’m taking Schwarber here.  His 28 homers are 2nd in baseball, and he’s been on a tear this year.  But I’m mostly taking him because he drew the matchup with Pujols.  All due respect to the legend, but my concern is the stamina aspect.  I don’t think The Machine can quite operate like a well-oiled machine anymore, and I just can’t see him being able to keep up with the rate I believe Schwarbs will hit his homers at. 


Juan Soto (+600) v. José Ramírez (+1400)

        This could be a closer matchup than I think people believe.  José is an underrated power hitter, in my opinion; however, he’s running into Soto at the wrong time.  First, Soto is going to want his revenge on Pete Alonso after Alonso knocked him out of the tournament last year.  So, he’ll be on a mission.  Secondly, Soto is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, and he’s someone who believes the Derby helps his swing.  Lastly, unless you have no interest in baseball at all, you’ve seen the headlines regarding his contract situation.  Soto has turned down an ungodly amount of money from the Guardians, and he’s going to try to show the Guardians and the world exactly what he believes he’s worth.  It’s Juan Soto moving on for me.


Pete Alonso (+200) v. Ronald Acuña Jr. (+700)

        Mr. Acuña is BACK, and he’s here to try to take the Home Run Derby Crown from two-time defending champ Pete Alonso.  Sadly, I think this mission ends about as quickly for him as Stannis Baratheon’s attempt to take the Iron Throne.  Go back and watch the last two Home Run Derbies and you’ll see that this is what Pete Alonso was born to do, and the Derby is his world.  Well, for now at least.  Alonso to round 2.


Corey Seager (+1200) v. Julio Rodríguez (+900)

        The veteran versus the young phenom.  Everyone wants to see what the favorite for the Rookie of the Year award will do in his first Derby.  J-Rod has a ton of pop, and I think he could be exciting to watch.  But, and there’s always a but, Corey Seager is the hottest hitter in baseball and has caught fire at the right time.  Seager has 5 home runs in his last 8 games and seems to have found his stride.  Something else I feel people aren’t considering here, he will have the crowd behind him.  Seager spent eight seasons with the Dodgers before signing with the Rangers this offseason, so this is somewhat his home ballpark.  I like Seager in this a lot. 


So now my bracket looks like this.  I’ll give a briefer breakdown of round 2!

ROUND 2


Schwarber vs. Soto

        As I mentioned before, Juan Soto is going to be a man on a mission.  I think that carries him past Schwarbs in a close round 2 battle.


Alonso vs. Seager

        This is going to be a hot take, but I believe this is where Pete’s reign comes to an end.  Call it homerism if you’d like, but I think it’s Corey Seager’s time to shine.  I think this one goes into the Derby equivalent of overtime, but with the crowd behind him, I think Corey Seager pulls out the upset.


CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND


Soto vs. Seager

        We have a slugfest lined up for the finale.  The man on a mission versus the possible people champ.  Unfortunately for Juan Soto, I believe he comes up short yet again.  But he shouldn’t stress too much.  He’s about to be a VERY VERY rich man.

        Against the popular opinion, I think the final addition to the competition ends up riding back to Arlington a champion.  There may be a little bit of bias seeping through the cracks here, but I really do believe there is something to coming into the competition on a hot streak.  Like I mentioned earlier, Seager finished the first half of the regular season on fire, and I see it carrying over into the Derby.


        So, here’s my final bracket!  My 2022 Home Run Derby Champion is Corey Seager!  My sportsbook isn’t allowing me to bet on the Derby, at the moment, but if I could, I really LOVE the odds on Seager.  I think there’s a ton of value there at +1200.  If I had to make another betting pick, it would be Alonso followed by Soto.  I think those two guys are the next two I could see taking home the trophy is Seager doesn’t get the job done!

        I wanted to see how my bracket would fair against the public’s bracket.  So, I created Twitter polls over the last few days with each matchup and allowed anyone who could see it to vote in order to determine the winners of each matchup. I took those poll results and created the The Kneaux Public Derby Bracket!  Here it is!

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By David Rainey July 19, 2025
It’s that time of year again. The excitement of All-Star weekend and the Homerun Derby are behind us, and it’s on to the second half of the MLB season. This is the time where the great teams separate themselves from the good teams. It’s the time for teams to show whether they should be considered contenders or pretenders. And with this time of the year, of course, comes the MLB trade deadline. Arguably the most intriguing trade deadline of all the major sports. Fringe teams will have to decide whether to be buyers or sellers, and the great teams will mortgage their futures for one player they believe will take them to the promise land. Now, as out of left-field as the ending to this year’s All-Star weekend was (raise your hand if you also weren’t aware that swing offs were a thing), the MLB trade deadline features something much more curious. The Player to Be Named Later. You see, as most of us know, it’s extremely common in Major League Baseball for a team like the Padres, for example, to sell off a handful of their top prospects at the trade deadline for a lefty reliever they hope will help them navigate the difficult waters that is the postseason. But what some people aren’t aware of (outside of us baseball nerds of course) is the use of something, or someone more specifically, called the “Player to Be Named Later (PTBNL)” in these trade scenarios. For those of you who don’t know, here’s a quick explanation of what exactly the phrase “Player to Be Named Later” means. In baseball, when a team isn’t sure exactly which prospect they want in return or when they are trying to finesse the roster management rules, they will accept a “Player to Be Named Later” in return in a trade. This gives that team the opportunity to further evaluate players and choose who they want in return at a later date. This doesn’t mean that the team will just be able to choose a superstar down the road, there are limitations placed on who can be chosen, and most of the time the player ends up being just another player lost in baseball lore. However, sometimes these PTBNL turn out to be more than just a journeyman or even lead to oddities that only baseball can provide. So, what are the most famous cases of Players to Be Named Later? Well, I’m glad you asked. Let’s start with the not so unexpected scenario that actually led to the PTBNL rules to be changed. Trea Turner Before 2015, there was a rule in place in the MLB in which prevented players from being traded for a year after being drafted. Trea Turner was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the first round of the 2014 Draft which meant, you guessed it, he wasn’t eligible to be traded until the following year. However, in December of 2014 the Padres, Nationals, and Rays agreed to mega-deal that involved 11 players AND a Player to Be Named Later. So, what does this have to do with Turner? Well, everyone was aware of who that PTBNL would be. Trea Turner. But as I mentioned before, he wasn’t allowed to be traded yet. So Turner had to spend the beginning of the next season playing for the Padres who had already traded him. This led to a rule change in MLB before the next draft to avoid this situation ever playing out again. But where is Trea Turner now? He’s certainly no journeyman. He had an incredible start to his career with the Nationals, before being traded (again) to the Dodgers with Max Scherzer in 2021. He eventually signed a $300 million deal with the Phillies where he still plays and remains one of the best players in Major League Baseball. But is he the best PTBNL of all time? Not quite. David Ortiz Big Papi. Ever heard of him? Sure you have. But did you know he wasn’t always the mashing lefty for the Red Sox that we know and love? That’s right. Early on in David Ortiz’s career he actually struggled to find a place in the league; and at one point, was even a Player to Be Named Later in a trade. He actually started his career with the Seattle Mariners, but he doesn’t mean much to the Mariners franchise outside of being a PTBNL in a trade in 1996 with the Minnesota Twins for Dave Hollins. As a matter of fact, not only was Ortiz not the player we know on the field, he wasn’t even David Ortiz on paper. At the time, he was actually known as David Arias. You might be thinking, “Wow. The Mariners really traded BIG PAPI.” Trust me when I tell that the Twins feel even worse. Ortiz would play a handful of seasons for the Twins from 1997-2002; however, even after a solid season in 2002 with the Twins, they would go on to RELEASE Ortiz. That’s right. Even one of the greatest players to ever step foot on a baseball diamond was not only traded as PTBNL but was also outright released. Of course in 2003, David Ortiz would go on to join the Boston Red Sox. Ten All-Star games, 3 World Series Championships, a World Series MVP, and a Hall of Fame selection later, David Ortiz would go down in baseball history as one of the most feared batters of all time, and the legend we know him as today Big Papi. What is the oddest Player to Be Named Later situation? There is a rare, but always delightfully bizarre situation in which a player is traded for himself as a Player to Be Named Later. This hilariously absurd scenario is so rare that it has only happened four times in the history of Major League Baseball. Harry Chiti – traded from the then Cleveland Indians to the Mets in 1962 for a PTBNL. However, he was so bad that the Mets decided trade him back to Cleveland as the PTBNL Brad Gulden – traded (with $100,000) from the Yankees to the Mariners for Larry Milbourne and a PTBNL in 1980. Once again, he performed so poorly that the Mariners traded him back to New York as the PTBNL in the original trade. Are you sensing a theme? Dickie Noles – In 1987 the Cubs traded him to the Tigers for a Player to Be Named Later. Sadly, he didn’t do enough during the Tigers playoff run that year for them to want to keep him around. So, they shipped back to the Windy City to complete the trade as the PTBNL. John McDonald – The most recent example. He was acquired by Detroit, who clearly didn’t learn anything in 1987, from the Blue Jays in 2005 for, that’s right, a PTBNL. Later that year, he was sent back to Canada for cash considerations. There you go. Next time you’re hanging out with your buddies on the back porch naming random athletes from your pass, feel free to drop in a “Dickie Noles” reference and explain the wonderful scenario of him being traded for himself. Baseball is such a beautiful sport in so many ways. For many of us, it’s the first sport we play as children, or the sport we remember watching with our grandparents on the living room floor. It has such an iconic and rich history. It’s known as “America’s past time” for a reason. But throughout that history, there are so many things that have happened that can only be described as strange and uniquely baseball. And that’s why we love it. So, when you’re scrolling social media or watching ESPN this trade deadline season and see that stud middle reliever traded for nothing but a Player to Be Named Later, maybe you won’t just brush it off this time around. Maybe you’ll wait to see who that player becomes, and maybe they’ll end up being another great piece of baseball trivia.
July 14, 2025
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