Going… Going… GONE!!!
Predicting the Home Run Derby
Monday night, eight of Major League Baseball’s best long ball hitters will swing for the fences to determine this year’s Home Run Derby Champion! Let me clear something up quickly, it will be seven of the current best home run hitters, and one all-time great hitter that has no business being in the bracket. Those eight contestants are: Phillies’ left fielder Kyle Schwarber, Nationals’ (for now) right fielder Juan Soto, Guardians’ third baseman José Ramírez, Ranger’s shortstop Corey Seager, Mariners’ center fielder Julio Rodríguez, Braves’ right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., Cardinals’ first baseman (the all-time great I mentioned) Albert Pujols and two-time defending champion, Mets’ first baseman Pete Alonso.
These eight men will face off in a single-elimination bracket to determine this year’s champion. Pete Alonso, who has won the last two Derbies, is the odds-on favorite at +200. He is followed by Kyle Schwarber at +300, with Pujols having the longest odds at +1800. See, I’m not the only one who believes Albert Pujols shouldn’t be in this event, but I digress. Let’s dive into the bracket.
The bracket looks like this! We’re going to go matchup by matchup.
ROUND 1
Kyle Schwarber (+300) v. Albert Pujols (+1800)
Kyle Schwarber. That’s it. That’s the analysis.
Fine, I’ll elaborate. But it’s only because I respect the player Albert Pujols has been in his career. Now let me preface this by saying, I am fully aware that this may come back to bite and Pujols may win this whole thing. Karma has a funny way of doing that.
Anyways, I’m taking Schwarber here. His 28 homers are 2nd in baseball, and he’s been on a tear this year. But I’m mostly taking him because he drew the matchup with Pujols. All due respect to the legend, but my concern is the stamina aspect. I don’t think The Machine can quite operate like a well-oiled machine anymore, and I just can’t see him being able to keep up with the rate I believe Schwarbs will hit his homers at.
Juan Soto (+600) v. José Ramírez (+1400)
This could be a closer matchup than I think people believe. José is an underrated power hitter, in my opinion; however, he’s running into Soto at the wrong time. First, Soto is going to want his revenge on Pete Alonso after Alonso knocked him out of the tournament last year. So, he’ll be on a mission. Secondly, Soto is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now, and he’s someone who believes the Derby helps his swing. Lastly, unless you have no interest in baseball at all, you’ve seen the headlines regarding his contract situation. Soto has turned down an ungodly amount of money from the Guardians, and he’s going to try to show the Guardians and the world exactly what he believes he’s worth. It’s Juan Soto moving on for me.
Pete Alonso (+200) v. Ronald Acuña Jr. (+700)
Mr. Acuña is BACK, and he’s here to try to take the Home Run Derby Crown from two-time defending champ Pete Alonso. Sadly, I think this mission ends about as quickly for him as Stannis Baratheon’s attempt to take the Iron Throne. Go back and watch the last two Home Run Derbies and you’ll see that this is what Pete Alonso was born to do, and the Derby is his world. Well, for now at least. Alonso to round 2.
Corey Seager (+1200) v. Julio Rodríguez (+900)
The veteran versus the young phenom. Everyone wants to see what the favorite for the Rookie of the Year award will do in his first Derby. J-Rod has a ton of pop, and I think he could be exciting to watch. But, and there’s always a but, Corey Seager is the hottest hitter in baseball and has caught fire at the right time. Seager has 5 home runs in his last 8 games and seems to have found his stride. Something else I feel people aren’t considering here, he will have the crowd behind him. Seager spent eight seasons with the Dodgers before signing with the Rangers this offseason, so this is somewhat his home ballpark. I like Seager in this a lot.
So now my bracket looks like this. I’ll give a briefer breakdown of round 2!
ROUND 2
Schwarber vs. Soto
As I mentioned before, Juan Soto is going to be a man on a mission. I think that carries him past Schwarbs in a close round 2 battle.
Alonso vs. Seager
This is going to be a hot take, but I believe this is where Pete’s reign comes to an end. Call it homerism if you’d like, but I think it’s Corey Seager’s time to shine. I think this one goes into the Derby equivalent of overtime, but with the crowd behind him, I think Corey Seager pulls out the upset.
CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND
Soto vs. Seager
We have a slugfest lined up for the finale. The man on a mission versus the possible people champ. Unfortunately for Juan Soto, I believe he comes up short yet again. But he shouldn’t stress too much. He’s about to be a VERY VERY rich man.
Against the popular opinion, I think the final addition to the competition ends up riding back to Arlington a champion. There may be a little bit of bias seeping through the cracks here, but I really do believe there is something to coming into the competition on a hot streak. Like I mentioned earlier, Seager finished the first half of the regular season on fire, and I see it carrying over into the Derby.
So, here’s my final bracket! My 2022 Home Run Derby Champion is Corey Seager! My sportsbook isn’t allowing me to bet on the Derby, at the moment, but if I could, I really LOVE the odds on Seager. I think there’s a ton of value there at +1200. If I had to make another betting pick, it would be Alonso followed by Soto. I think those two guys are the next two I could see taking home the trophy is Seager doesn’t get the job done!
I wanted to see how my bracket would fair against the public’s bracket. So, I created Twitter polls over the last few days with each matchup and allowed anyone who could see it to vote in order to determine the winners of each matchup. I took those poll results and created the The Kneaux Public Derby Bracket! Here it is!
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