Even the Restless can sit still
Why Pelicans fans should be grateful for a boring day 1 of draft night.
On the NBA draft’s eve, amid the rumors, many turned their eyes to the Pelicans, to once again get wild and supposedly play the same card as last year and aggressively pursue, via draft trade, a “certain prospect” that being Nate Ament — I tweeted this out:
"I’m telling you right now, if Trey Murphy is traded for a lotto pick — and the Pelicans trade for “Nate Ament”… consider that my letter of resignation."
Poorly worded, probably because those were some angry Twitter fingers, but you get my point… the idea of trading Trey Murphy for a lottery pick to draft “Nate Ament” made me reconsider the staggering 240 subscribers and Pelicans Twitter celebrity status I had worked so hard for.
All jokes aside, I was agonizing over this hypothetical, and my total lack of faith in this current regime justified the drama.
A little over 24 hours later, the dust has settled… if it ever was unsettled in the first place. So let’s reset and look at what actually happened.
Because the Pelicans did not unload the asset clip, they did not jump the gun or get exposed like last year by tipping their hand.
I’m not a reporter, but reading the tea leaves, their desperation for a lottery pick felt real, not just a smokescreen. They wanted a big-time pick but never closed the deal to acquire one.
Why? I have no clue. I’m sure we’ll find out soon.
My guess is that their asking price for Trey Murphy was too rich for potential suitors.
Everyone on social media expected chaos, so many were frustrated when night one ended empty-handed.
My advice, in two cliches: Don’t be a prisoner of the moment, and understand the bullet you just dodged.
Look as a wannabe basketball talking head, there’s so much more in it for me content wise when chaos ensues.
The Pelicans have been relatively boring compared to the rest of the field. It’s admittedly bad for my fake job.
When fans hear “lottery pick,” hopium hits like a Mack Truck, and traumatized goldfish brain kicks in.
The NBA had its prom night, and Pelicans nation thought they were invited, only to be left home twiddling thumbs.
And like a comforting parent, I’m swooping in to tell you this is a GOOD THING!
Imagine Onsi Saleh dog-walking the Pelicans again by acquiring Trey Murphy for the draft pick you punted last year.
I’m not commenting on the fairness of said hypothetical deal, but on the optics of what could’ve been.
That’s essentially saying, “Whoops, we would like that pick back we shipped off, so here’s our most coveted asset, Trey Murphy.”
I shouldn’t have to explain how humiliating that would’ve been.
The Nate Ament of it all
Any desperate draft-night transaction could’ve easily been a poor-value exchange, given Troy Weaver’s history of getting the short end of the stick, and again, all the buzz indicated they were enamored with Nate Ament.
If they used the 8th pick on Ament, all that excitement would’ve turned to turmoil fast.
I’m no NBA draft expert; I don’t have the time to do the due diligence I’d like to, so I fixate on a number of players, do what I can, and lean on some experts I trust in that field.
Even making the most optimistic case, I just don’t see it with Nate Ament.
He’s a 6’10 wing with a 6’11.5 wingspan that was ranked #4 in this class coming out of high school, who had a letdown year with Rick Barnes at the University of Tennessee.
Ament was supposed to be a three-level shot maker who constantly filled it up at the collegiate level, typecast as some Brandon Ingram/great-value-brand Durant variant. “If you squint, you see “Insert skinny scoring wing name here.”
Almost everything displayed on tape proved that another year in college would be the best decision for his career.
He struggled to separate and create space, got bumped off his spot frequently, wasn’t physically imposing even in the biggest of mismatches, and lacked even the flashes of what an “upside swing” should show.
The biggest bust indicator I could find was his 51.8% rim percentage, which ranked in the 6th percentile.1 And worse yet, he shot 42% at the rim in half-court possessions2 — proving that self-sufficiency and handling physicality at the NBA level will be nearly impossible for him.
Personally, for a prospect who could’ve been the Pelicans wing of the future, that would’ve been mortifying.
Now it’s not all horrible; Ament had a 57.8 free-throw rate in his lone college season, ranking in the 93rd percentile, which is the lone factor in predicting a lofty all-star ceiling.
I’d prefer to see him carve out his own way in the league in more of a come-off-screens-and-attack-closeouts role, with a fervor to be more defensively impactful. It’s far from unreasonable to say he could be another unique 3-and-D who contributes to winning.
However, I believe the Pelicans front office saw him as another cornerstone, or at the very least, third fiddle to Jeremiah Fears and Derik Queen. The fact is, his proficiency comes from getting to the line and scoring in the mid-range. For a star-bet who would’ve been traded, potentially, for the glue that holds the Pelicans offense together in Trey Murphy, this would have undoubtedly been the kiss of death.
Just like Derik Queen in the 25’ draft, there was no secret whatsoever that the Pelicans had a strong desire to trade into to get their guy in Ament, and again, I’m not totally certain how legit all the noise was.
But before you go complaining about why the Pelicans didn’t shake things up yesterday, consider this:
This isn’t just about how much I, and many others, would have disapproved of reaching for Nate Ament — it’s about a possible change of heart and, potentially, a change in process with this front office.
Kidding, but I promise you another car cash was avoided.
Don’t say people can’t change?
I’m not saying that since Weaver and Dumars stayed put that I’m all of a sudden putting my faith in them.
At the very least, this is a pleasant surprise. Good front offices don’t bend the knee on a player’s value just because they’re trigger-happy to make a move.
I didn’t believe for one moment during all the buildup that this current group was capable of doing so.
My assumption is that they would’ve had to overpay or sell low to move where they wanted, and no other team gave them the chance.
And instead of getting frantic and shortsighted like they did last year, they remained firm instead.
Other teams’ leverage was the Pelicans’ potential eagerness, yet that leverage wasn’t exposed.
With all that, fans, I’m pleading with you to think about what could have been and to look at the silver lining:
This current brass could have made a franchise-altering move, likely for the worse, and another Joe Dumars zoom call would have been the channel of explanation.
Don’t lie to yourself now, or move the goal posts and say you wouldn’t have been outraged.
You got caught up in the excitement and uncertainty, and maybe the team would’ve seen the timeline change it so desperately needs.
But you’re forgetting who’s steering the ship.
At best, the Pelicans would’ve accidentally stumbled into a sensible direction: a rebuild.
Maybe they would’ve paired Jeremiah Fears with Keaton Wagler or Brayden Burries, or found a sure-fire second contract center in Aday Mara.
These are all BIG IFS, because who’s to say they would’ve picked the right prospect, won the transaction, or at the very least not completely lose one.
One giant roundabout way to say, don’t look a gift horse in the mouth.
Aside from all the cliches and analogies, I think there are a few major questions after last night, even with what I consider a win.
Does this mean the Pelicans plan on making player-for-player deals in search of “their guys” to replace Herb Jones and Trey Murphy?
What will the “tell-all” reports say about night one of the draft? Were they just smoke screens, or did a major deal fall through?
Does Trey Murphy even want to remain in New Orleans after all this, and can this front office walk back these trade rumors?
Will there still be significant roster turnover, and what’s their plan to improve through external transactions?
Only time will tell in what will likely still be an interesting summer, despite a rather uninvolved and boring, but in my opinion, successful round one of the NBA draft.
For all things Pelicans, be sure to follow me on Twitter at @giddhoops !
A quick share helps us a lot!
