Meeting Again

I have discussed Sonny Cumbie’s tenure and his growth throughout his time at Tech a good bit so far this season. It seems like a hurdle has finally been reached and a mountain summited for the promising coach that Ruston was hoping would bring us back to the limelight. His team is 5-2 and has a marquee win over a good Army team, having also earned an undefeated record in Tech’s first year of Sun Belt conference play. It seems like everything is going Louisiana Tech’s way, and with the rest of the western division earning second losses, there seems to be just one big hurdle left to climb: South Alabama. USA has a very brief and recent history with Tech football of which the Bulldogs lead the nine-year-old series 2-1. That one loss came in 2022 in Cumbie’s fourth game as the head coach of Louisiana Tech, unable to string together their second win of that year and failing 14-38 in Mobile. Today, Cumbie has an opportunity to take a monstrous lead in the Sun Belt west and redeem his debut year against the Jaguars.

Sprint to the Finish

The University of South Alabama rushes on 60.6% of their called plays, doing so the 8th most in the nation and they’re pretty good at moving the football this way. USA has top 25 rankings in explosiveness, rushing predicted points added, and low stuff rate. They have the 26th most rushing yards and 18th most touchdowns, averaging 4.7 yards per rush. In short, they’re extremely good at running the rock. On their team, they have two rushers with over 470 yards each: Keenan Phillips and PJ Martin. Phillips is averaging 5.4 yards per carry, as is 270-yard rusher Trae'von Dunbar. Even their current QB Jared Hollins has a decent amount of rushing totals, and the passing hasn’t been too bad either.

The Jags throw the ball some of the least in college football, but have had some success when they do throw it. They clock in with the 11th most explosive passing offense and are top 60 in both predicted points added on passes and yards per attempt. Not only do the Jaguars manage mostly efficient passing, they almost never turn the ball over, having only four surrendered possessions this season so far. They like to run, they can throw, and they do not give second chances to opposing teams. In every single one of USA’s wins, they have scored at least 39 points and average 47. In their losses, they average just 19 points.

Shootouts for a Reason

Part of the reason South Alabama’s wins have had such high scores is because that was truly what was required to win those games. In their losses, the defense could not stop other teams from scoring and so when the offense did not succeed, there was little hope for the team as a whole. The Jaguars give up the second highest success rate to opposing teams in the FBS and are near the bottom of teams in allowed explosiveness, field position, and average points allowed per opposing team’s trips inside the 40. Almost all other statistics, both rushing and passing defense, are quite unappealing for the Jags except their ability to prevent explosive passing plays, which ranks 30th. While Louisiana Tech does not rely heavily on these explosive passes, they have utilized them in their successful wins. For yet another week, Tech will face a lopsided Sun Belt team, this time with defensive weaknesses that must be taken advantage of if there is any hope to win in Mobile.

Conclusions

Today, Dylone Brooks is listed as doubtful while Judd Rouyea will more than likely return to the field as a marquee pass rusher and run stopper. Tech clearly needs to succeed on nearly every offensive possession while in hostile territory today. While the Bulldogs are among the nation’s best in tackles for loss, they face a squad that knows how to barrel down the field in the rushing attack and the elite linebacking corps will need to step up. It is a huge moment for Sonny Cumbie’s program and while it may not be impossible to make it to the Sun Belt championship with a loss, it will be extremely difficult to win the following week at Troy. The team knows how to fight hard and I will be paying close attention to their gameplan when I watch them play today. The start of a rough road stretch begins today, let’s go win it all! Go Dogs!!!