Updated 53-Man Roster Projection Part 1

Jamie UK • August 22, 2023

Offense Projection

We’ve now seen the Saints play 2 preseason games and have two joint practices with the Los Angeles Chargers. This is have provided me some additional insight into who’s trending towards a spot on the initial 53-man roster. The Saints must cut down their roster from 90 to 53 after their final preseason game against the Texans on Sunday, so at this stage let’s dive into how I think that roster is going to look.

In part 1 I will project the offense, in part 2 I will project the defense and specialists.


Quarterback

First Projection (3)

Derek Carr

Jameis Winston

Jake Haener


Todays Projection (3)

Derek Carr

Jameis Winston

Jake Haener


There’s no change in my projection at QB. Carr looked excellent against the Chiefs and had a solid week of practice against the Chargers, I am even more confident now than I already was at the start of the off-season that Carr is going to be a great fit in this offense and a real upgrade at the most important position in sports.


Jameis Winston has played exactly as I’d expect so absolutely wow throws (I thought the throw to Shaq Davis against the Chargers was a damn dime) but, also some heads scratchers, I still think Winston gives the Saints one of the best backup QBs in the league but the floor this team is certainly lower if he had to start many games.

Finally, the HaenerHYPEtrain, it’s been a mixed bag for Haener since I did this exercise last.  He struggled for the most part against the Chiefs with some encouraging moments. He didn’t take any team reps against the Chargers in practice so not much to comment on there. However, he played much better in the game Vs the Chargers and showed some of the poise and abilities that have led him to be hyped throughout training camp. The highlight for Haener was a beautiful throw on the run to former LSU Tiger Jontre Kirklin, who hopefully continues to show improvements in the last preseason game vs the Texans.

Running Back

First Projection (4)
Alvin Kamara

Jamaal Williams

Kendre Miller

Adam Prentice (FB)


Todays Projection (4)

Alvin Kamara**

Jamaal Williams

Kendre Miller

Adam Prentice (FB)


Again, I have no change here, but you may have noticed I have Kamara with an * that’s because he will need to be carried on the initial 53 before being moved to the reserve/suspended list, which then frees up his roster spot for the Saints to use on most likely another RB. 


The question here is if the Saints choose to just carry 5 RBs straight away. Are they going to bring back an RB after Kamara’s spot opens? Or the final option they have is to add a couple of RBs to the practice squad (likely rookie UDFA Ellis Merriweather, who’s impressed me in both games and gives me Latavious Murray vibes with his upright running style and/or the vet Darrell Williams) and elevate them on gamedays (this would be my preferred option).


Williams has had a solid but fairly unassuming couple of weeks against the Chiefs and Chargers there are no concerns about him being RB1 whilst Kamara is suspended.  Miller had a better game against the Chargers than the Chiefs, highlighted by an excellent Alvin Kamara impression with a diving catch down the left sideline and some really solid pass protection (which was a concern coming out of college) on another dime from Winston, Miller will be a great change-of-pace option to Williams early in the season.

Wide receiver

First Projection (5)

Michael Thomas 

Chris Olave 

Rashid Shaheed 

Tre’Quan Smith 

A.T. Perry


Today’s Projection (6)

Michael Thomas 

Chris Olave 

Rashid Shaheed 

Tre’Quan Smith 

A.T. Perry

Keith Kirkwood


I'm going to experiment with keeping 6 WRs this time, the top 4 seem pretty set the only question is if the Saints lose patience with Smith as is has missed the last couple of weeks of camp and has struggled to stay on the field previously. Pre-injury Smith looked like the clear number 4 WR, so my guess is he’s safe. A.T. Perry has continued to rise was excellent against the Chiefs and was solid again this week in practice and in the game against the Chargers, he feels like a lock at this stage.


At WR6 I’ve added Keith Kirkwood because all signs point to him making it. I just don't know if they really make 6 WRs work. He’s had a really good camp and was WR3 in the game vs the Chiefs (Note- neither Shaheed nor Smith played) regardless that was still a big vote of confidence, the bigger vote of confidence came against the Chargers when Kirkwood was one of the players the Saints chose not to play, it would be unusual for the Saints to not play someone who’s fighting for a spot. Which would imply he’s done enough.


Honourable mentions- I wanted to highlight 2 other WRs who I don’t think will make quite make it, Kawaan Baker and Shaq Davis. Baker has been really strong on special teams (usually WR5/6’s need to be) and had a really good week in practice against the Chargers he’s the type of player with another strong week and final game who could make a push for Kirkwood’s spot. 


Finally, Shaq Davis, rookie UDFA has taken a while to warm up, he’s been quoted as saying that’s mainly because he’s been trying to get to grips with the playbook.  He looked good in limited action against the Chiefs, he has a massive catch radius and crucially looks to be really good on contested catches (something the Saints have been very vocal about wanting to add) which he showed in that game and then followed that up with a week against the Chargers. I don’t think Davis will quite do enough to make the 53 but seems like a prime practice squad candidate who could break out next offseason.


Tight End

First Projection (4)

Juwan Johnson 

Foster Moreau 

Taysom Hill

Jimmy Graham


Today’s Projection (4)

Juwan Johnson 

Foster Moreau 

Taysom Hill

Jimmy Graham


The same projection here, although I was very hesitant with Graham after his medical scare over the weekend. I’m not hesitant because I think Graham has done anything wrong (as per usual the TMZ reporting was misleading and dreadful). More so we don’t know currently how well he is. He is already a 36-year-old TE trying to make a return to the NFL after a year off, now he’s had what sounded like quite a concerning health issue, that’s why I’m hesitant to put him on the 53 at this stage without knowing more.

If Graham doesn’t make it I would have had the Saints keeping 3 TEs here. Lucas Krull hasn’t done enough to warrant a place on the 53 after some bad drops last night especially, would most likely be a practice squad candidate as he has shown some progress in his second offseason. 


Offensive Line

First Projection (9)

Trevor Penning

James Hurst

Erik McCoy

Cesar Ruiz

Ryan Ramczyk

Andrus Peat

Nick Saldiveri 

Landon Young 

Calvin Throckmorton 


Today’s Projection (9)

Trevor Penning

James Hurst

Erik McCoy

Cesar Ruiz

Ryan Ramczyk

Andrus Peat

Nick Saldiveri 

Landon Young 

Calvin Throckmorton 


I wanted to be original here and have a new name to add to this list, maybe Max Garcia or Tommy Kramer (who has graded out very well on PFF in both games) but ultimately I've stuck with the same list because I just don’t think anyone has played well enough to warrant a place over any of these players. Crucially, of the 8 penalties called on the o-line last night none of them were called on the players from this list, which I think says a lot as to how the team will also be grading this group. 


That gives me 26 offensive players, leaving 27 spots left up for grabs. Watch for part 2 where I will go through my defensive and specialist players.


Make sure to follow me on Twitter and Instagram @SaintsReportUK, for much more Saints content and discussion throughout the 2023 season and beyond.


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