Steve Garcia (+120) vs Diego Lopes (-155):

To kick-off UFC Freedom 250, we have an action-packed clash of two top 10 ranked featherweights with devastating knockout power. The underdog Steve Garcia comes into this matchup riding a seven fight winning streak with six coming via knockout. This tilt with the second ranked Diego Lopes I believe will be his toughest test thus far. Lopes comes into this matchup losing 2 of 3, however context here matters. Both of Lopes’ losses during that time span are at the hands of reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski. His win was an impressive destruction over highly touted contender Jean Silva. In this matchup in particular, I believe Lopes has edges in speed, durability, grappling and deserves to be the rightful favorite. What Lopes lacks in technical ability and footwork, he closes the skill gap with his potent finishing ability and granite chin. While Garcia certainly has the more technical skills of the two combatants, I do worry about his durability against a fast starter here in Lopes. Diego Lopes has plenty of experience being in the limelight…Steve Garcia does not. I believe Lopes rises to the occasion once again and gets the early finish.

The Pick: Diego Lopes ML (-155)

Best Bet: Diego Lopes - Inside the Distance (+120)

Bo Nickal (-340) vs Kyle Daukaus (+250):

The second matchup of the night features two middleweights trying to break into the contenders circle at 185 pounds. The large favorite in this matchup, Bo Nickal, decided to pursue MMA after a decorated collegiate wrestling career at Penn State. I believe it is a fair criticism to say that he has certainly underperformed expectations up til this point in his MMA career. His wrestling game hasn’t exactly translated as well as most believed and his striking mechanics are somewhat of a mess. On the other hand, we have Kyle Daukaus. He returns for his second stint in the UFC after an underwhelming first run. Daukaus is a relatively well rounded fighter possessing decent skills on the feet and on the ground. I have questions about where both men really are entering this fight as Nickal has largely underwhelmed and I have trouble really buying Daukaus’ “mini-run” since returning to the UFC. For the sake of a pick, I’ll side with Nickal. However, I don’t see any value in his price tag. I would say if you must bet a side, then Daukaus is your man. I believe the overs are the strongest way to play this fight as I don’t really rate either guy as a high-level finisher.

The Pick: Bo Nickal ML (-350)

Best Bet: Fight Goes The Distance (+170)

Mauricio Ruffy (-750) vs Michael Chandler (+460):

In a battle of ranked lightweights, we have two men at vastly different stages of their career as indicated by the betting line here. I will make this short. Michael Chandler is more interested in being a showman these days than fighting to any sort of intelligent gameplan. You then combine that with shoddy durability and you have the potential recipe for an absolute disaster. I simply do not see any way the younger, faster, and more dynamic Ruffy here blows this one. The problem is, the prices for anything Ruffy-related are much too chalky for my taste. I will predict a Ruffy first round knockout here as I believe the speed and array of attacks will overwhelm the older, slower Chandler sooner rather than later.

The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO (-210)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)

Josh Hokit (-440) vs Derrick Lewis (+310):

In our first heavyweight contest of the night, we have two all-action fighters looking for quick finishes. UFC newcomer, Josh Hokit has quickly risen to fame mostly by way of his bizarre “schtick” but to his credit, his latest performance versus a top contender in Curtis Blaydes was certainly a fan friendly affair. Hokit blends an aggressive in your face style that no one has been able to solve yet in his young MMA career. On the other hand, we have longtime UFC veteran Derrick Lewis. As Lewis nears the tail end of his career, he only really brings one thing to the table and that is very early knockout finishes. If Hokit tries to showboat a little too much here, it could cost him. However, I am not predicting it will. At least not yet. Hokit has a lot going for him in this matchup such as youth, athleticism, grappling upside, and a relentless pace. Combine all of those things and I feel Lewis becomes a sinking ship quickly. Hokit is the likely victor here, but when you add in the caveat that he may give Lewis a chance (no matter how fleeting it may be) to hit his win condition - I would rather not lay -440 on a guy who has a few wild card tendencies.

The Pick: Josh Hokit ML (-440)

Best Bet: Josh Hokit via KO/TKO (+125)

Aiemann Zahabi (+320) vs Sean O’Malley (-440):

Here we have a battle between two bantamweight contenders. The large betting underdog in this matchup is the surging Canadian, Aiemann Zahabi. While Zahabi may be riding a seven fight win streak, I just can’t buy it. The people he has beaten have little to no meaning in this bettor's eyes. Absolutely none of them will prepare him for the speed and creative variety O’Malley will bring into the octagon with him Sunday night. These two men could fight ten times and I would not predict Zahabi to get his hand raised a single time. O’Malley seems tailor made to exploit all of Zahabi’s shortcomings such as age, durability, lack of grappling, physicality, or finishing ability. This one is simple to me. O’Malley shines bright here. Sean O’Malley returns to form and earns a knockout victory. I can’t ignore the obvious advantages in speed, creativity, and punching power.

The Pick: Sean O’Malley ML (-440)

Best Bet: Sean O’Malley via KO/TKO (+210)

Alex Pereira (-110) vs Ciryl Gane (-110):

In our first of two title fights, we have the Interim Heavyweight Championship on the line. This matchup features fan-favorite Alex Pereira making his heavyweight debut and long-time division mainstay Ciryl Gane. The betting line may indicate a true coin flip, but that is where I will disagree. I simply do not understand how one can make this fight a true pick-em when every facet you can think of is in Gane’s favor minus punching power. I really believe this is one of the best, if not the best value spot on the card. Pereira’s path to victory is likely an early knockout and outside of that happening, I struggle to see him show he is the better man over the course of a potential 25 minute affair. Not to mention a perceived strong grappling edge plus Gane is a super mobile and agile athlete. I do not think it will be a walk in the park for Pereira to find him while they are striking. We have never seen “Poatan” at heavyweight in his entire career and then you pair that with this body transformation happening at 38 going on 39 years of age - I just don’t love it for his chances. All of this points me to one side at the current price range and that is Ciryl Gane. I believe Gane has more tools in his toolbox and more avenues to a victory. I do find it interesting and also a bit telling that when Bet Online opened their odds for this potential matchup back in February, they had Ciryl Gane listed as the (-190) betting favorite. What has changed since then? To me? Nothing. Pereira will no doubt be one of the most popular bets for this Sunday’s card, just not for this bettor.

The Pick: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)

Best Bet: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)

Justin Gaethje (+370) vs Ilia Topuria (-550):

The main event of the evening is a clash of champion and challenger for the Lightweight Championship of the world. Two-Division Champion Ilia Topuria looks to improve his MMA record to a shiny 18-0, while UFC veteran Justin Gaethje looks to do the unthinkable and pull off a massive upset victory. This fight here is simple. Ilia Topuria is just simply better at every facet of MMA than Justin Gaethje ever was. Full stop. The edges here in skill and intangibles are large. Topuria will get the job done, it is just a matter of figuring out how he will do so. I believe that Topuria will finish this fight rather quickly and rather easily. There is not a ton here to suggest that Gaethje can realistically last for more than a round or two in my eyes. I will keep this one simple; Ilia Topuria via Round 1 knockout.

The Pick: Ilia Topuria via Round 1 KO/TKO (+250)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)

I hope that you all enjoy this truly historic sporting event on Sunday evening and I wish you all the best of luck with your bets!

#GreauxTheDeaux

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