UFC Freedom 250 Betting Primer

Rudy Georgetti • June 12, 2026

Steve Garcia (+120) vs Diego Lopes (-155):


To kick-off UFC Freedom 250, we have an action-packed clash of two top 10 ranked featherweights with devastating knockout power. The underdog Steve Garcia comes into this matchup riding a seven fight winning streak with six coming via knockout. This tilt with the second ranked Diego Lopes I believe will be his toughest test thus far. Lopes comes into this matchup losing 2 of 3, however context here matters. Both of Lopes’ losses during that time span are at the hands of reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski. His win was an impressive destruction over highly touted contender Jean Silva. In this matchup in particular, I believe Lopes has edges in speed, durability, grappling and deserves to be the rightful favorite. What Lopes lacks in technical ability and footwork, he closes the skill gap with his potent finishing ability and granite chin. While Garcia certainly has the more technical skills of the two combatants, I do worry about his durability against a fast starter here in Lopes. Diego Lopes has plenty of experience being in the limelight…Steve Garcia does not. I believe Lopes rises to the occasion once again and gets the early finish.

The Pick: Diego Lopes ML (-155)

Best Bet: Diego Lopes - Inside the Distance (+120)



Bo Nickal (-340) vs Kyle Daukaus (+250):


The second matchup of the night features two middleweights trying to break into the contenders circle at 185 pounds. The large favorite in this matchup, Bo Nickal, decided to pursue MMA after a decorated collegiate wrestling career at Penn State. I believe it is a fair criticism to say that he has certainly underperformed expectations up til this point in his MMA career. His wrestling game hasn’t exactly translated as well as most believed and his striking mechanics are somewhat of a mess. On the other hand, we have Kyle Daukaus. He returns for his second stint in the UFC after an underwhelming first run. Daukaus is a relatively well rounded fighter possessing decent skills on the feet and on the ground. I have questions about where both men really are entering this fight as Nickal has largely underwhelmed and I have trouble
really buying Daukaus’ “mini-run” since returning to the UFC. For the sake of a pick, I’ll side with Nickal. However, I don’t see any value in his price tag. I would say if you must bet a side, then Daukaus is your man. I believe the overs are the strongest way to play this fight as I don’t really rate either guy as a high-level finisher.

The Pick: Bo Nickal ML (-350)

Best Bet: Fight Goes The Distance (+170)



Mauricio Ruffy (-750) vs Michael Chandler (+460):


In a battle of ranked lightweights, we have two men at vastly different stages of their career as indicated by the betting line here. I will make this short. Michael Chandler is more interested in being a showman these days than fighting to any sort of intelligent gameplan. You then combine that with shoddy durability and you have the potential recipe for an absolute disaster. I simply do not see any way the younger, faster, and more dynamic Ruffy here blows this one. The problem is, the prices for anything Ruffy-related are much too chalky for my taste. I will predict a Ruffy first round knockout here as I believe the speed and array of attacks will overwhelm the older, slower Chandler sooner rather than later.


The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO (-210)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)



Josh Hokit (-440) vs Derrick Lewis (+310):


In our first heavyweight contest of the night, we have two all-action fighters looking for quick finishes. UFC newcomer, Josh Hokit has quickly risen to fame mostly by way of his bizarre “schtick” but to his credit, his latest performance versus a top contender in Curtis Blaydes was certainly a fan friendly affair. Hokit blends an aggressive in your face style that no one has been able to solve yet in his young MMA career. On the other hand, we have longtime UFC veteran Derrick Lewis. As Lewis nears the tail end of his career, he only really brings one thing to the table and that is very early knockout finishes. If Hokit tries to showboat a little too much here, it could cost him. However, I am not predicting it will. At least not yet. Hokit has a lot going for him in this matchup such as youth, athleticism, grappling upside, and a relentless pace. Combine all of those things and I feel Lewis becomes a sinking ship quickly. Hokit is the likely victor here, but when you add in the caveat that he
may give Lewis a chance (no matter how fleeting it may be) to hit his win condition - I would rather not lay -440 on a guy who has a few wild card tendencies.


The Pick: Josh Hokit ML (-440)

Best Bet: Josh Hokit via KO/TKO (+125)



Aiemann Zahabi (+320) vs Sean O’Malley (-440):


Here we have a battle between two bantamweight contenders. The large betting underdog in this matchup is the surging Canadian, Aiemann Zahabi. While Zahabi may be riding a seven fight win streak, I just can’t buy it. The people he has beaten have little to no meaning in this bettor's eyes. Absolutely none of them will prepare him for the speed and creative variety O’Malley will bring into the octagon with him Sunday night. These two men could fight ten times and I would not predict Zahabi to get his hand raised a single time. O’Malley seems tailor made to exploit all of Zahabi’s shortcomings such as age, durability, lack of grappling, physicality, or finishing ability. This one is simple to me. O’Malley shines bright here. Sean O’Malley returns to form and earns a knockout victory. I can’t ignore the obvious advantages in speed, creativity, and punching power.


The Pick: Sean O’Malley ML (-440)

Best Bet: Sean O’Malley via KO/TKO (+210)




Alex Pereira (-110) vs Ciryl Gane (-110):


In our first of two title fights, we have the Interim Heavyweight Championship on the line. This matchup features fan-favorite Alex Pereira making his heavyweight debut and long-time division mainstay Ciryl Gane. The betting line may indicate a true coin flip, but that is where I will disagree. I simply do not understand how one can make this fight a true pick-em when every facet you can think of is in Gane’s favor minus punching power. I really believe this is one of the best, if not
the best value spot on the card. Pereira’s path to victory is likely an early knockout and outside of that happening, I struggle to see him show he is the better man over the course of a potential 25 minute affair. Not to mention a perceived strong grappling edge plus Gane is a super mobile and agile athlete. I do not think it will be a walk in the park for Pereira to find him while they are striking. We have never seen “Poatan” at heavyweight in his entire career and then you pair that with this body transformation happening at 38 going on 39 years of age - I just don’t love it for his chances. All of this points me to one side at the current price range and that is Ciryl Gane. I believe Gane has more tools in his toolbox and more avenues to a victory. I do find it interesting and also a bit telling that when Bet Online opened their odds for this potential matchup back in February, they had Ciryl Gane listed as the (-190) betting favorite. What has changed since then? To me? Nothing. Pereira will no doubt be one of the most popular bets for this Sunday’s card, just not for this bettor.


The Pick: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)

Best Bet: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)



Justin Gaethje (+370) vs Ilia Topuria (-550):


The main event of the evening is a clash of champion and challenger for the Lightweight Championship of the world. Two-Division Champion Ilia Topuria looks to improve his MMA record to a shiny 18-0, while UFC veteran Justin Gaethje looks to do the unthinkable and pull off a massive upset victory. This fight here is simple. Ilia Topuria is just simply better at every facet of MMA than Justin Gaethje ever was.
Full stop. The edges here in skill and intangibles are large. Topuria will get the job done, it is just a matter of figuring out how he will do so. I believe that Topuria will finish this fight rather quickly and rather easily. There is not a ton here to suggest that Gaethje can realistically last for more than a round or two in my eyes. I will keep this one simple; Ilia Topuria via Round 1 knockout.


The Pick: Ilia Topuria via Round 1 KO/TKO (+250)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)



I hope that you all enjoy this truly historic sporting event on Sunday evening and I wish you all the best of luck with your bets!


#GreauxTheDeaux

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By Abdul Abusada • October 25, 2026
The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns suffered another heartbreaking loss on Saturday afternoon, falling 35-31 to the Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Renasant Stadium in Hattiesburg. Despite holding a lead late in the fourth quarter, UL once again failed to finish a game, allowing Southern Miss to march down the field and score the game-winning touchdown with less than a minute remaining. Louisiana entered the matchup looking to build on its dominant 33-6 victory over Troy last weekend. Instead, the Cajuns delivered one of their most frustrating performances of the season against a Southern Miss team that entered Saturday with just one win. The loss drops Louisiana to 5-3 overall and 2-2 in Sun Belt play, with the chance of reaching the Sun Belt title game now being slim to none. Defense Gets Exposed on the Ground Just one week after putting together arguably its best defensive performance of the season against Troy, Louisiana’s defense took a significant step backward against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles finished with 450 total yards, including a staggering 286 rushing yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Southern Miss averaged 6.7 yards per rushing attempt with two rushers running for over 140 yards each, consistently finding success against what a Louisiana defense that struggled to contain the Golden Eagles’ backfield. Running back Steven Robinson finished with 145 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 22 carries, scoring all three of his touchdowns in the first half. Jamarice Wilder was just as productive, rushing for 154 yards on only 13 carries, including the 16-yard game-winning touchdown with 58 seconds remaining. For comparison, this same Louisiana defense held Troy to just 126 rushing yards a week ago, who rushed for 437 yards against Southern Miss a couple weeks ago. The difference in performance from that standpoint alone is concerning, especially considering Southern Miss entered the game struggling to find success offensively. What makes the defensive performance even more frustrating is that Southern Miss didn’t necessarily need their explosive passing attack to win. Quarterback Landry Lyddy finished with 164 passing yards and no touchdowns. The Golden Eagles were able to move the football primarily by running it, and Louisiana simply couldn’t find a consistent answer. The Cajuns also struggled to get off the field in important situations. Southern Miss converted four of its seven fourth-down attempts, including a devastating fourth-and-one late in the game when Wilder broke free for 28 yards to set up the winning touchdown. Then the self-inflicted mistakes. In the second quarter, an offsides penalty on Louisiana turned a fourth-and-six into a fourth-and-one, which Southern Miss converted before eventually scoring another touchdown. Jake St. Andre led the Cajuns with 11 tackles and a sack, while Lake Bates finished with a career-high 10 tackles. Kody Jackson added nine tackles and a fumble recovery, but the individual defensive efforts weren’t enough to overcome the unit’s struggles. This defense showed against Troy that it is capable of controlling a football game. Saturday’s performance was a disappointing reminder of just how inconsistent it has been. Passing Game Surges in Second Half, but a Costly Mistake Changes Everything One of the few encouraging developments from Saturday was Louisiana’s improvement through the air in the second half. After throwing for just 70 yards against Troy last weekend, quarterback Lunch Winfield bounced back with a career-high 299 passing yards, completing 22 of 41 attempts with two touchdowns and one interception. The Cajuns started the afternoon in the best way they could, putting together a 13-play, 75-yard opening drive that lasted half a quarter and ended with a five-yard touchdown run from Winfield. The Cajuns defense then forced a three and out and got the ball right back, making it seem like they were on their way to put up a stellar game performance. But that wasn’t necessarily the case. Southern Miss orchestrated a seven-play, 67 yard drive in just three minutes for a touchdown. Louisiana later answered a 14-7 deficit when JJ Garner broke free for a 42-yard touchdown run, tying the game in the second quarter. Then trailing 21-14 late in the first half, Winfield connected with Trenton Chaney for a four-yard touchdown with just 31 seconds remaining, sending the teams into halftime tied at 21. Louisiana eventually took a 28-21 lead late in the third quarter when Winfield found Anthony Reagan Jr. for a 31-yard touchdown. At that point, the Cajuns appeared to have gained control of the game, particularly with the defense holding Southern Miss scoreless throughout the third quarter. Unfortunately, that momentum disappeared early in the fourth. With Louisiana still leading 28-21, Winfield threw an interception that Southern Miss defensive back Kolby Peavy returned 30 yards for a touchdown, tying the game at 28 with 10:05 remaining. It was undoubtedly one of the biggest turning points of the afternoon. Instead of forcing Southern Miss to put together another scoring drive, Louisiana handed the Golden Eagles seven points. Winfield deserves credit for making some important throws throughout the game, particularly after the passing game’s struggles against Troy. However, mistakes like that become incredibly difficult to overcome in closely contested conference games. Unfortunately this wasn’t the first time this season, as similar mistakes cost the Cajuns the game against Louisiana Tech a couple weeks ago on the road. Louisiana finished with only 118 rushing yards, its lowest total of the season. Southern Miss came into this game allowing 252 yards per game, the second worst in the country. Garner led the way with 52 yards on seven carries, continuing his streak of five consecutive games with a rushing touchdown. The improvement in the passing game was encouraging, but the Cajuns couldn’t combine that production with the rushing success they had established in previous weeks. Lunch Winfield himself was shut down on the ground by the Golden Eagles, finishing with only seven yards on 13 carries. It’s ever since the USC road game, Winfield has struggled on the ground when on the road, and it was no different on Saturday. Another Fourth-Quarter Collapse The most frustrating part of Saturday’s loss was how Louisiana once again handled the final minutes of a close game on the road. Following Winfield’s interception, the Cajuns responded with an impressive 17-play, 74-yard drive that consumed seven minutes and eight seconds of game clock. Louisiana moved the football all the way to the Southern Miss five-yard line, but the drive stalled after an incomplete pass on third down. Tony Sterner connected on a 22-yard field goal to give the Cajuns a 31-28 lead with 2:51 remaining. While the drive was impressive in terms of controlling possession and moving the football, settling for three points instead of seven proved costly. Southern Miss needed a touchdown to win, and Louisiana’s defense had an opportunity to close out the game. The Golden Eagles marched 75 yards in just eight plays, taking only one minute and 53 seconds off the clock. The Cajuns force fourth down on the Louisiana 44-yard line. With an opportunity to end the drive and essentially secure the victory, the Cajuns allowed Wilder to break free for 28 yards, setting Southern Miss up deep in Louisiana territory. Two plays later, Wilder found the end zone from 16 yards out, giving Southern Miss a 35-31 lead with just 58 seconds remaining. Louisiana had one final opportunity following a 46-yard kickoff return by Ja’Corian Norris, but the offense failed to move the football beyond its own 47-yard line before turning it over on downs. Poor play-calling and offensive execution once again in a late game situation turned another potential victory into another devastating loss. A Frustrating Loss with Bigger Implications The most disappointing takeaway from Saturday isn’t simply that Louisiana lost another close game. It’s that the Cajuns continue to put themselves in positions to win football games, only to come away empty-handed when it matters most. As I kept mentioning, Louisiana suffered a similar loss in Ruston when they lost a heartbreaker to Louisiana Tech 32-31. They were up 31-19 with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter against the Bulldogs, only to give it up after poor defensive play and poor offensive play calling. Now, the Cajuns have lost another game in the final minute in similar fashion, this time against a Southern Miss team that entered the matchup with a 1-5 record. These are the kinds of games that can ultimately determine whether a team competes for a conference championship or spends the remainder of its season wondering what could have been. And it certainly looks like the latter will be the case. Louisiana will now have to win these last four games, as well as hope that Louisiana Tech loses 3 of their remaining 4 games, in order to make the Sun Belt title game. Knowing the Bulldogs are 4-0 in the Sun Belt and have been playing really good in their first SBC season, it seems unlikely the Cajuns has any chances left. There’s plenty of blame to go around. The defense allowed nearly 300 rushing yards and failed to make critical stops. The offense gave Southern Miss a defensive touchdown and couldn’t finish its final scoring drive in the end zone. Louisiana also went 0-for-3 on fourth-down attempts while allowing Southern Miss to convert four of seven. It’s difficult to point to any one mistake as the reason Louisiana lost. The reality is that multiple mistakes throughout the afternoon contributed to an outcome that should have been avoided. Fifth-year head coach Michael Desormeaux in his postgame interview told the media: “We didn’t play well enough to win…Too many mental mistakes and critical errors.” It’s becoming a season of what-ifs, simply put. Unfortunately, we have seen this time and time under head coach Michael Desormeaux. It is leading to a lot of questions and frustration being voiced by the fan base, and rightly so. The fanbase (and the program) needs more than just another bowl game appearance, and assuming things go the way they’re projected to go, unfortunately it won’t be that way once again this season. Louisiana will have a much-needed bye week before returning home to face South Alabama on November 7 at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium. The extra week provides an opportunity to address the mistakes that have continued to cost this team. But at some point, those corrections have to translate into results on the field. Saturday wasn’t a game Louisiana lost because Southern Miss was overwhelmingly more talented. It was a game the Cajuns had multiple opportunities to win and simply failed to finish. And unfortunately, that’s becoming an all-too-familiar story this season.
By Kaden Arkeder • October 25, 2026
The Saints lost in Paris today. They look lost on the field and the organization from the top down appears lost. The Saints for all of their supposed effort and emphasis on this international game did not show up ready once again to play their opponent. It was once again an embarrassing showing by the offense after many hoped they could carry over their offensive success from last week against the Giants. This game despite the score was not all that close. If it was not for a bad play from Jalen Ramsey against DeVaughn Vele on his TD catch the Saints would not have gotten into the endzone at all today. The complete incompetence of the Saints run game is so astonishing there are so many things you could say but they are all tired at this point. It is nothing new for this team. The simple fact of finding some success last week to then having the worst performance this season but also the NFL’s worst performance in four years speaks to just how bad the coaching and execution of the run game is for the Saints. There is too much being asked of a second year QB with a broken hand to carry this offense and the Saints are failing him by putting him in this position. The ineptitude is not just on offense though. The defense today could not stop the run once again and continue to be one of the worst run defending teams in the NFL. On third down the Saints routinely could not get off the field and allowed the Steelers to drive the ball, chewing up the clock all day long. It felt like the only time the Saints could get a stop was when Chase Young and Carl Granderson were able to get to the quarterback today. Then there were the plays where the coverage just made no sense. When you have Jonas Sanker playing man coverage deep against DK Metcalf you are doing something wrong as a defensive playcaller. It’s not just a one off issue as the Steelers scored their touchdown to Darnell Washington because of the simple size advantage given to them by having Kool Aid in coverage. Cameron Jordan was in coverage down the field the other week. These types of situations cannot happen if you want to be a competitive football team which the Saints just are not anymore. Heading into the bye change is needed for this organization. The status quo is not good enough as fans' patience has reached its limit for this regime. Fans do not want to hear or watch the same story every week and feel apathetic towards their football team but that is exactly what the Saints are doing to their fans. This coaching staff does not have the answers needed to even show the needed signs of improvement to even consider wanting to give them more time. But the front office and Mickey Loomis are just as much to blame for the sad state of affairs the Saints find themselves in. Regime change is needed for the Saints to get where they want to be but until Gayle Benson makes those changes the Saints will continue to be lost.
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