UFC Freedom 250 Betting Primer

Rudy Georgetti • June 12, 2026

Steve Garcia (+120) vs Diego Lopes (-155):


To kick-off UFC Freedom 250, we have an action-packed clash of two top 10 ranked featherweights with devastating knockout power. The underdog Steve Garcia comes into this matchup riding a seven fight winning streak with six coming via knockout. This tilt with the second ranked Diego Lopes I believe will be his toughest test thus far. Lopes comes into this matchup losing 2 of 3, however context here matters. Both of Lopes’ losses during that time span are at the hands of reigning champion Alexander Volkanovski. His win was an impressive destruction over highly touted contender Jean Silva. In this matchup in particular, I believe Lopes has edges in speed, durability, grappling and deserves to be the rightful favorite. What Lopes lacks in technical ability and footwork, he closes the skill gap with his potent finishing ability and granite chin. While Garcia certainly has the more technical skills of the two combatants, I do worry about his durability against a fast starter here in Lopes. Diego Lopes has plenty of experience being in the limelight…Steve Garcia does not. I believe Lopes rises to the occasion once again and gets the early finish.

The Pick: Diego Lopes ML (-155)

Best Bet: Diego Lopes - Inside the Distance (+120)



Bo Nickal (-340) vs Kyle Daukaus (+250):


The second matchup of the night features two middleweights trying to break into the contenders circle at 185 pounds. The large favorite in this matchup, Bo Nickal, decided to pursue MMA after a decorated collegiate wrestling career at Penn State. I believe it is a fair criticism to say that he has certainly underperformed expectations up til this point in his MMA career. His wrestling game hasn’t exactly translated as well as most believed and his striking mechanics are somewhat of a mess. On the other hand, we have Kyle Daukaus. He returns for his second stint in the UFC after an underwhelming first run. Daukaus is a relatively well rounded fighter possessing decent skills on the feet and on the ground. I have questions about where both men really are entering this fight as Nickal has largely underwhelmed and I have trouble
really buying Daukaus’ “mini-run” since returning to the UFC. For the sake of a pick, I’ll side with Nickal. However, I don’t see any value in his price tag. I would say if you must bet a side, then Daukaus is your man. I believe the overs are the strongest way to play this fight as I don’t really rate either guy as a high-level finisher.

The Pick: Bo Nickal ML (-350)

Best Bet: Fight Goes The Distance (+170)



Mauricio Ruffy (-750) vs Michael Chandler (+460):


In a battle of ranked lightweights, we have two men at vastly different stages of their career as indicated by the betting line here. I will make this short. Michael Chandler is more interested in being a showman these days than fighting to any sort of intelligent gameplan. You then combine that with shoddy durability and you have the potential recipe for an absolute disaster. I simply do not see any way the younger, faster, and more dynamic Ruffy here blows this one. The problem is, the prices for anything Ruffy-related are much too chalky for my taste. I will predict a Ruffy first round knockout here as I believe the speed and array of attacks will overwhelm the older, slower Chandler sooner rather than later.


The Pick: Mauricio Ruffy via KO/TKO (-210)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-115)



Josh Hokit (-440) vs Derrick Lewis (+310):


In our first heavyweight contest of the night, we have two all-action fighters looking for quick finishes. UFC newcomer, Josh Hokit has quickly risen to fame mostly by way of his bizarre “schtick” but to his credit, his latest performance versus a top contender in Curtis Blaydes was certainly a fan friendly affair. Hokit blends an aggressive in your face style that no one has been able to solve yet in his young MMA career. On the other hand, we have longtime UFC veteran Derrick Lewis. As Lewis nears the tail end of his career, he only really brings one thing to the table and that is very early knockout finishes. If Hokit tries to showboat a little too much here, it could cost him. However, I am not predicting it will. At least not yet. Hokit has a lot going for him in this matchup such as youth, athleticism, grappling upside, and a relentless pace. Combine all of those things and I feel Lewis becomes a sinking ship quickly. Hokit is the likely victor here, but when you add in the caveat that he
may give Lewis a chance (no matter how fleeting it may be) to hit his win condition - I would rather not lay -440 on a guy who has a few wild card tendencies.


The Pick: Josh Hokit ML (-440)

Best Bet: Josh Hokit via KO/TKO (+125)



Aiemann Zahabi (+320) vs Sean O’Malley (-440):


Here we have a battle between two bantamweight contenders. The large betting underdog in this matchup is the surging Canadian, Aiemann Zahabi. While Zahabi may be riding a seven fight win streak, I just can’t buy it. The people he has beaten have little to no meaning in this bettor's eyes. Absolutely none of them will prepare him for the speed and creative variety O’Malley will bring into the octagon with him Sunday night. These two men could fight ten times and I would not predict Zahabi to get his hand raised a single time. O’Malley seems tailor made to exploit all of Zahabi’s shortcomings such as age, durability, lack of grappling, physicality, or finishing ability. This one is simple to me. O’Malley shines bright here. Sean O’Malley returns to form and earns a knockout victory. I can’t ignore the obvious advantages in speed, creativity, and punching power.


The Pick: Sean O’Malley ML (-440)

Best Bet: Sean O’Malley via KO/TKO (+210)




Alex Pereira (-110) vs Ciryl Gane (-110):


In our first of two title fights, we have the Interim Heavyweight Championship on the line. This matchup features fan-favorite Alex Pereira making his heavyweight debut and long-time division mainstay Ciryl Gane. The betting line may indicate a true coin flip, but that is where I will disagree. I simply do not understand how one can make this fight a true pick-em when every facet you can think of is in Gane’s favor minus punching power. I really believe this is one of the best, if not
the best value spot on the card. Pereira’s path to victory is likely an early knockout and outside of that happening, I struggle to see him show he is the better man over the course of a potential 25 minute affair. Not to mention a perceived strong grappling edge plus Gane is a super mobile and agile athlete. I do not think it will be a walk in the park for Pereira to find him while they are striking. We have never seen “Poatan” at heavyweight in his entire career and then you pair that with this body transformation happening at 38 going on 39 years of age - I just don’t love it for his chances. All of this points me to one side at the current price range and that is Ciryl Gane. I believe Gane has more tools in his toolbox and more avenues to a victory. I do find it interesting and also a bit telling that when Bet Online opened their odds for this potential matchup back in February, they had Ciryl Gane listed as the (-190) betting favorite. What has changed since then? To me? Nothing. Pereira will no doubt be one of the most popular bets for this Sunday’s card, just not for this bettor.


The Pick: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)

Best Bet: Ciryl Gane ML (-110)



Justin Gaethje (+370) vs Ilia Topuria (-550):


The main event of the evening is a clash of champion and challenger for the Lightweight Championship of the world. Two-Division Champion Ilia Topuria looks to improve his MMA record to a shiny 18-0, while UFC veteran Justin Gaethje looks to do the unthinkable and pull off a massive upset victory. This fight here is simple. Ilia Topuria is just simply better at every facet of MMA than Justin Gaethje ever was.
Full stop. The edges here in skill and intangibles are large. Topuria will get the job done, it is just a matter of figuring out how he will do so. I believe that Topuria will finish this fight rather quickly and rather easily. There is not a ton here to suggest that Gaethje can realistically last for more than a round or two in my eyes. I will keep this one simple; Ilia Topuria via Round 1 knockout.


The Pick: Ilia Topuria via Round 1 KO/TKO (+250)

Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-110)



I hope that you all enjoy this truly historic sporting event on Sunday evening and I wish you all the best of luck with your bets!


#GreauxTheDeaux

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South Alabama Jaguars vs Tulane Green Wave football matchup graphic with helmet logos on dark blue
By Patrick Harkness September 9, 2026
What to expect from USA Offense and Defense Roll Dat Wave Pod drops tmr w/ @greenwavecolin ! Full Preview breakdown and more! What South Alabama’s offense is: Head coach Major Applewhite is calling the plays himself after taking over mid-2025. It is a multiple-spread system that wants to run first, stay on schedule, and live in the short-to-intermediate passing game. They do not take many deep shots. Last year they ranked 121st nationally in pass attempts per game. Week 1 this year they rushed 59 times for 241 yards. That is the identity. QB Bishop Davenport started all 12 games in 2025: 200-of-294 (68%), 2,073 yards, 12 TD, 6 INT, plus 325 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs. He is efficient when he is completing 70%+. When he dips below that, USA went 0-7 last year. He is a throw-on-the-run, keep-it-alive quarterback, not a 60-yard bomber. Vs Tulane last September he was good: 17-of-24, 231 yards, 2 passing TDs, 63 rush yards, 1 rushing TD. Week 1 vs SELA: 18-of-27, 154 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, plus a rushing score. Backup is Jared Hollins. Running backs by committee, by design. Kentrel Bullock (1,085 yards last year) is gone. In his place: • PJ Martin 18-69-1 vs SELA; 5.4 ypc last year • Keenan Phillips 13-66 vs SELA; 605 yards in 2025 • Trae’von Dunbar 13-60-1 vs SELA All three finished between 60 and 69 yards in Week 1. Nobody is the featured back. They will lean on volume and Davenport keepers. Wide Receivers: The problem is they lost Devin Voisin, who had 8 catches for 152 yards and 2 TDs against Tulane last year (including a 65-yard score). Returning pieces: Anthony Eager (top returning target, 40 catches in 2025, more of a possession guy), Brendan Jenkins (5-78-1 vs SELA), Micah Woods, Jeremiah Jones-Thomas. Tight end Rod Gibbs is in the mix. This group can move chains. It has not shown a true vertical threat yet this season. Offensive line is the question mark. Last year’s unit ran well; this year’s line lost most of its starters. Ethan Hubbard (RT) and Kenton Jerido (C) are the veterans. Week 1 vs an FCS team they still ran for 241, so the committee can function. How it matches Tulane this week Tulane just allowed 227 rushing yards and 2 TDs to Nate Sheppard on 35 carries. Edge setting and run fits were a problem in Durham. That is exactly what Applewhite will try to exploit: inside zone, duo, QB keepers, and a three-back rotation that does not let the Wave pin its ears back. Last year USA had 190 rush yards and 421 total on Tulane and still lost because they went scoreless in the second and third quarters. The script they want Saturday: 1. Establish Martin/Phillips/Dunbar early so Davenport can keep and throw play-action. 2. Get Jenkins and Eager involved on timing throws, Davenport’s comfort zone. 3. Avoid the mid-game stall that killed them in Mobile. What South Alabama’s defense was last year The 2025 Jaguars allowed 30.4 points (110th nationally) and 176.6 rushing yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry. They could not get to the quarterback. Vs Tulane they gave up 241 rushing yards and three rushing TDs on 45 carries. Jake Retzlaff and Zuberi Mobley ran through them. Pass defense was more respectable (205 ypg), but the front never consistently collapsed the pocket. They also lost pieces that now wear green: Ed Smith IV and Dalton Hughes transferred to Tulane. Starters Blayne Myrick, Darius McKenzie, and Wesley Miller are gone too. What it is this year: New DC Todd Orlando (USF the last three years; coached with Applewhite at Houston). He is not running last year’s “keep it in front of you” 4-2-5 as a religion. He said the package will be multiple four-man/three-man, nickel, dime fitted to personnel, and more attacking. Co-DC Jason Washington still runs the corners. Front and edge: This was the weakest group on paper after the portal purge. Returning: Stephen Johnson (NT), Emmanuel Waller, Tyler Carter, E’Mauri Smiley. Portal help: Mase Lewis (McNeese), Christian Ross (Holy Cross), Dylan Chiedo (Furman). Tirrell Johnson is the hybrid/edge they lean on (54 tackles, 5 TFL last year). Week 1 they had only one sack vs SE Louisiana. Linebackers: Tirrell Johnson, Tre’Mon Henry, Parker Shattuck, Seidrion Langston (ULM transfer), Kaydon Degraffenreid, Caleb Dozier. This room is supposed to be the stabilizer while the line develops. Secondary: More continuity here. Jayvon Henderson (CB), Cole Blaylock (S), Dallas Young (FS), Damyrion Darby. Portal: Jaylen Moson (Utah) and DJ Moore (Georgia Tech). Week 1 both Darby and Moson got interceptions on SELA’s first couple of series. Week 1 tape (vs SE Louisiana) Held SELA to 231 yards, 45 rushing yards, and 0-for-7 on third down. Two interceptions, one sack. Possession was 40:09–19:51 because the offense sat on the ball, but the defense also never let SELA convert. The caveat: SELA’s two scores were both four-play explosives. When they could not hit a chunk play, they went nowhere. That is the binary Orlando’s group imposed, score fast or punt. It will not be that easy against an FBS offense that can motion TEs and superbacks. The game within the game for USA’s D: 1. Run fits vs a broken ground game. Last year they could not stop Tulane’s run. If Orlando’s front stays gap-sound, Semonza is forced into obvious passing downs, which is when a blitz-happy DC wants to live. 2. Blitz vs Semonza’s timing. Semonza gets the ball out faster than Chriss. Hall will use motion, TEs (Dawson Johnson, Vance Bolyard), and the superback (Jaylin Lucas) to muddy hot reads. If USA sends extra and does not get there, Hill and the intermediate game can eat. 3. Explosives. SELA beat them twice with quick-strike TDs. Hill and CJ Lewis already showed they can take one. USA cannot give up that same shot and survive if Tulane’s offense finally finishes a drive. #RollWave Make sure to follow Patrick Harkness on X
Tulane football poster: “The Return,” showing a football player in a white helmet and green jersey.
By Patrick Harkness September 9, 2026
Kam Hamilton is an immediate veteran upgrade for a Tulane D-line that lost its entire 2025 CFP starting front. The 6-4, 292-pound Zachary product just returned as a fifth-year player after going undrafted and is already in the rotation. Eligibility was confirmed about an hour before kickoff. The eligibility path Hamilton never redshirted. He graduated in May 2026 after four seasons and was auto-enrolled in the 2026 NFL Draft. He worked out with the Saints and Cardinals but did not sign. A new NCAA five-year eligibility rule did not grandfather the 2022 class, so he needed the injunction. The American Conference also stated that NFL tryouts would not trigger a penalty. Tulane will not be punished if the ruling is later overturned. Tulane was the only FBS school that offered him out of Zachary High, where he started on the offensive line for the 15-0 2021 LHSAA 5A state champions before switching to defense. Production and traits Career totals through 2025 (54 games, 22-23 starts): • 90 tackles • 12 sacks • 16.5 tackles for loss • 3 forced fumbles • 3 passes defended Year-by-year: • 2022 (FR): 15 tackles, 0.5 sacks • 2023 (SO): 25 tackles, 4 sacks, 6 TFL, 1 FF • 2024 (JR): 21 tackles, 4.5 sacks, 6 TFL, 2 FF, 9 starts, third-team All-AAC • 2025 (SR): 29 tackles, 3 sacks, 4 TFL, 3 PD, 13 starts He is listed as a DE but he can play inside or outside. Strength and awareness are his calling cards; he occupies blockers and still produces sacks and TFLs from the interior. What the 2026 D-line needed: The 2025 starting four from the Ole Miss CFP game are gone: Hamilton was expected to be with the Saints, Harvey Dyson transferred to NC State, Santana Hopper to Colorado, and Tre’Von McAlpine to Kansas. Preseason pieces were transfers Derrick Shepard Jr. (NT, experienced after a 2025 UAB-to-Tulane move) and Ed Smith IV (DT from South Alabama) plus a young rotation (Josh Lewis, Reshad Sterling, Geordan Guidry, Armondous Cooley, Jordyn Crites, PaLanding Drammeh). The room was described as talented and deep but inexperienced. They rotate heavily. Duke exposed the run defense (250 rushing yards, Nate Sheppard 227). What he specifically adds • Experience and leadership in a young room under new DL coach Eric McDaniel. Shepard and Smith IV were the main veterans; Hamilton is the guy with the most Tulane snaps and starts. • Interior run-stopping presence. Size and strength to occupy double teams so linebackers (Dickson Agu, Chris Rodgers, Makai Williams) and the bandit (Jah’rie Garner) can flow. This was the biggest Week 1 need. • Pass-rush from inside. Consistent 3-4.5 sack seasons give the front another interior threat instead of relying only on edges. • Scheme versatility in Tulane’s 4-2-5 / multiple looks under DC Tayler Polk and co-DC Nate Fuqua. He can two-gap or one-gap depending on alignment. • Culture and motivation. Local product who overcame a hearing impairment, just missed the NFL, and is playing for a fifth year on an injunction. Will Hall’s comment after the Duke game: “I think he can help us a lot.” He is not a flashy edge rusher who will post 10-sack seasons. He is a high-floor, high-motor 292-pound interior piece who knows the program, already knows the calls, and immediately improves the rotation quality on a front that needed exactly that after the 2025 attrition. Expect him to stay in the two-deep mix at DT for the rest of the season. #RollWave Make sure to follow Patrick Harkness on X
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