LSU heads on the road for their second SEC game of the season. Their first trip ended in a 32-24 loss in Oxford to Ole Miss, but this game against Kentucky has significantly less big game connections. While there is a lot of influence involving a lot of former LSU influence, it’s certainly not the grand affair that we saw in week 3. The Tigers come in as the #10 team in both the AP and Coaches polls with their record of 4-1 (1-1 SEC). They jumped back in to the top-10 following Florida’s blowout loss at Missouri, which plummeted the Gators in the polls. Kentucky also comes in at 4-1 (2-1 SEC) having beat Texas A&M and South Carolina for their two conference wins. They’re ranked #24 in the Coaches Poll, but dropped two spots from #24 to unranked in the AP, despite their road overtime win over the Gamecocks. LSU offense vs. Kentucky defense Both sides of the ball are fairly large mismatches for the Tigers, at least on paper. LSU comes in with the 3rd ranked total offense in the entire country, averaging 547.8 yards per game. That’s #1 in the SEC. Their 43.6 points per game ranks 9th in the country, 4th in the SEC. It’s been a struggle-fest at times for the Wildcat defense. Jay Bateman is in his first season as Kentucky defensive coordinator after coming over from Mike Elko’s staff in College Station. They are allowing 376.6 yards per game, which ranks 92nd in the country and 13th in the SEC. They’ve given up a lot of points at 26.8 per game, which is 101st in the country and 13th in the conference. Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr’s offense has moved the ball both through the air and on the ground. They average 310.2 yards per game passing and a whopping 237.6 yards rushing per game, which is music to LSU fans’ ears after the struggles to run the ball under Brian Kelly and former OC, Joe Sloan. Both of those numbers are top-15 in the entire country and rank 2nd and 3rd in the conference, respectively. Bateman’s 4-2-5 defense are ranked 13th against both the pass and run, allowing 232.4 yards per game through the air and 144.2 yards on the ground. They also allow 20.8 first downs per game, which is 105th in the entire country and that makes them vulnerable against a Kiffin team that is picking up 28.2 per game, 2nd most in the country. The biggest advantage that LSU’s offense will have is their 3rd down offense against Kentucky’s 3rd down defense. The Tigers are #2 in the SEC, converting 3rd downs at a 51.9% rate. On the other side, the Wildcats are near the very bottom in all of Division 1, allowing a 45.9% rate for opposing offenses on 3rd down. They’re ranked 122nd out of 138 teams, which is last in the SEC, clearly. Not being able to get off of the field against a Kiffin/Weis offense is probably a death sentence. Offensive coordinator, Charlie Weis Jr, is a mastermind at designing plays and calling them at the right time. He helps guide LSU to enough success as it is, so squaring off against a defense that’s so susceptible is great for the purple and gold. Look for less big shots down the field early and for LSU to attack the Kentucky defense with short, quick pass plays to mix in with the run. The goal could be to get to 3rd and short, knowing you’re better at converting those opportunities. I would expect a lot of Dilin Jones and even Harlem Berry after his performance the last two weeks. The main thing that the offense has to do is protect the ball. The Wildcats best advantage is how often they turn opposing offenses over, averaging 2.0 per game, which is 15th in the country. We’ve seen Sam Leavitt’s struggles with protecting the ball at times, so this will have to be his cleanest game in that area to secure the first LSU road SEC win of the season. LSU defense vs. Kentucky offense Blake Baker and his unit have been masterful. There’s no other way to put it. They rank 2nd in the country and 1st in the SEC, allowing just 220.6 yards per game. Their 15.2 points allowed per game is 15th overall and 3rd in the conference.They’re at the top in 1st downs given up with just 11.6 per game and are 2nd in the country with their 22 sacks. Kentucky’s offense has been improving fairly rapidly, especially from what we saw in years past under Mark Stoops. Former Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein is in his first year as head coach for the Wildcats and has them ranked 54th in the country and 9th in the SEC with 416.8 yards per game. Their 34.6 points per game is 49th overall, 10th in the SEC. The aforementioned Joe Sloan is now in Lexington as the offensive coordinator, but it’s Stein’s offense and he’s calling the plays. Baker’s unit ranks 2nd in the SEC against both the pass and the run. LSU allows 162.2 yards through the air and just 58.4 on the ground per game, which are both absurd numbers. Especially the opposing rushing numbers. Princewill Umanmielen leads the country with his 8 sacks with freshman Deuce Geralds not far behind at 5 and quickly chasing down Harold Perkins Jr’s freshman record. While improved, neither of Kentucky’s attacks on offense jump off of the page. They’re picking up 229.6 yards per game through the air and 187.2 yards on the ground, which are 11th and 6th in the conference, respectively. Their rushing offense is definitely their best, having multiple running backs with over 300 yard rushing through 5 games. CJ Baxter is their go-to with 5.3 yards per carry, but they also love Jason Patterson who has a whopping 7.9 ypc. The other names to remember with the LSU connections is Kenny Darby and Nic Anderson. Darby is a true freshman, who was a long-time commit to the Tigers with Brian Kelly. When Kiffin took over, Corey Barber Jr flipped from Ole Miss to LSU and that seemingly took Darby’s spot, forcing him to follow Sloan to Kentucky. He leads the team with 25 receptions for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns. Anderson was a Tiger last year and while he has a modest 9 receptions for 120 yards and a touchdown, he’ll certainly be motivated. The other two guys to watch in Stein’s offense are tight ends Willie Rodriguez and Henry Boyer. They have a combined 30 receptions for 310 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Wildcats love to use both. Final prediction While Kentucky has played well, pulling the massive road upset at Texas A&M as 17-point underdogs, I still have a hard time seeing them matchup against this LSU team. The Tigers offense is starting to hum, especially on the ground, which is what Kiffin loves to do. I believe that the 3rd down matchup on that side of the ball will tell the tale of this game. If the conversion rates look similar to what they do heading in to the game, the Tigers could run away with it. On the other side, quarterback Kenny Minchey has looked solid. His 11/1 touchdown to interception ratio is really good, but he’s been sacked 11 times. Against the 2nd best pass rush in the country, that could spell doom for the Wildcat offense, making it hard for them to hold on to the ball as their defense struggles to get off of the field. LSU - 31 Kentucky - 13