It’s an early rivalry week in the Bayou State as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns head north for a Thursday night showdown against the UL-Monroe Warhawks. Kickoff is set for 8pm from FMOL Health | St. Francis Stadium, and will be nationally televised on ESPN2. UL enter the matchup 6-3 overall and 4-2 in the Sun Belt fresh off a thrilling 28-26 victory over South Alabama, securing bowl eligibility for the ninth consecutive season. Meanwhile, the 2-7 overall Warhawks are 2-3 in the Sun Belt and are coming off a 19-17 road victory over Arkansas State, their second win in three games following an 0-6 start. Louisiana leads the all-time series 35-26 and has won the last three meetings, including a narrow 30-27 overtime victory in Lafayette last season. With both teams in the Sun Belt West, the two clash every year, typically for the final regular season week, commonly known as rivalry week. This year, however, the matchup comes a bit earlier than usual. With both teams coming off emotional victories and having just five days between games, Thursday’s matchup presents an intriguing challenge for these in-state rivals. The Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Head coach Michael Desormeaux and the Ragin’ Cajuns enter Thursday’s contest looking to build on their sixth victory of the season and continue improving their position in the Sun Belt West standings, which outside Louisiana Tech’s first place spot, is currently highly contested. Louisiana’s offense this season has leaned heavily on its rushing attack, averaging 203.6 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Lunch Winfield has been a major part of that success, leading the Cajuns with 567 rushing yards while also throwing for 1,599 yards and seven touchdowns. Redshirt freshman JJ Garner is the leader in the running back room with 441 rushing yards, averaging 7.2 per carry. UL is coming off their best rushing performance of the season, piling up 312 yards against South Alabama. JJ Garner provided the fireworks, rushing for 136 yards on just 10 carries, including a 65-yard touchdown. Garner also returned the opening kickoff 100 yards for a score, finishing the afternoon with 239 all-purpose yards. Winfield added 97 rushing yards while completing 10 of his 14 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown. Defensively, Louisiana has been relatively consistent throughout the season, allowing 21.8 points and 323 yards per game. The unit delivered when it mattered most against South Alabama, with Jake St. Andre recording a crucial sack before Micah Johnson intercepted a pass to seal the victory. Safety Collin Jacob made his return from injury in that game, providing the defense with a spark. However, one area Louisiana will look to improve is its performance away from Lafayette. The Cajuns are a perfect 5-0 at home this season, but just 1-3 on the road, with close losses to Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss. Their lone road win came against a current 1-8 Charlotte 49ers team who held UL to under 300 total yards back in late September. Thursday presents another opportunity to prove they can carry their success away from Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium. Maybe UL-Monroe’s stadium name now having a similar connection to Louisiana’s stadium might be the key for them this time. Kneaux the Opponent: The UL-Monroe Warhawks UL-Monroe started the season 0-6 and averaging only 20 points per game in what appeared to be yet another lost season for Bryant Vincent. Then they went on to win two of the last three games to put them at 2-7. But a word of caution—don’t let that 2-7 record fool you. After dropping their first six games, the Warhawks earned its first victory of the season with a 21-14 road win over Troy. Then following a loss to Southern Miss, UL-Monroe bounced back with a 19-17 victory at Arkansas State last Saturday. And while they still averaged 20 points per game over the last three games, their defense has cut down on the yards they’ve allowed per game by roughly 186 yards. The Warhawks offense through the season has averaged 338.4 yards per game, which as opposed to the Cajuns, much of their production has come through the passing game. Senior quarterback Aidan Armenta has thrown for 1,413 yards, 10 touchdowns and five interceptions this season. Sophomore quarterback Austin Carlisle has also played a role for the Warhawks from time to time. Carlisle’s usage has been interesting in the sense that he has provided another dimension to the UL-Monroe offense with his mobility. He leads the team with 363 rushing yards and was particularly effective against Arkansas State, rushing for 111 yards on 19 carries. The Warhawks finished that game with a season-high 268 rushing yards. Through the air, wide receiver Marcellus Jackson leads the team with 35 receptions for 370 yards, while Nic Trujillo has recorded three receiving touchdowns. Parker Fulghum and LT Robinson have also been a big part of the Warhawks passing game this season. Defensively, UL-Monroe has struggled throughout the season, surrendering 34.8 points and 421.2 yards per game. The Warhawks have been particularly vulnerable against the run, allowing an average of 211.1 rushing yards per contest. Linebacker Noah Flemmings has been one of the few bright spots on that defense, leading the team with 84 total tackles. But other than that, it has been an underperforming defense that has only forced nine turnovers all season. Although the Warhawks can no longer reach the traditional six-win threshold for bowl eligibility, the Warhawks still have plenty to play for. Defeating their in-state rival on national television would undoubtedly be one of the highlights of an otherwise disappointing season. What to Watch For A Potentially Run-Heavy Matchup Both teams are coming off impressive rushing performances, with Louisiana running for 312 yards against South Alabama and UL-Monroe totaling 268 against Arkansas State. The Cajuns should have a significant opportunity to establish their ground game against a Warhawks defense that’s allowing more than 200 rushing yards per contest. On the other side, Louisiana must prepare for UL-Monroe’s quarterback-driven rushing attack, particularly with Carlisle’s ability to extend plays and create opportunities with his legs. The Cajuns have been fairly solid against the run overall, but mobile quarterbacks have occasionally exposed the defense, particularly when they break containment. Louisiana’s Offensive Execution Despite accumulating 459 yards of total offense, including 312 rushing yards, against South Alabama last Saturday, the Cajuns narrowly escaped with a 28-26 victory. Louisiana scored three offensive touchdowns, while JJ Garner added a 100-yard kickoff return for a score. However, a costly interception by quarterback Lunch Winfield was returned 72 yards for a touchdown by South Alabama’s Jaylen Moson, helping the Jaguars stay within striking distance. Although Louisiana moved the football effectively, the Cajuns were held scoreless in the fourth quarter. Against a struggling UL-Monroe defense, Louisiana must capitalize on scoring opportunities, protect the football and avoid allowing costly mistakes to keep the Warhawks in the game. The Cajuns have had their fair share of mistakes on the road when it comes to obvious passing situations. The Home and Away Factor One of the more interesting storylines entering Thursday is the contrast between each team’s performances based on location. Louisiana has struggled on the road, winning just one of its four contests away from Lafayette. However, UL-Monroe has experienced even greater difficulties at home, entering Thursday winless in four home games this season. Something will have to give when the Cajuns and Warhawks meet under the lights in Monroe. Louisiana’s Shrunken Backfield On Monday, Coach Desormeaux announced to the media that running back Anthony Reagan Jr. has been ruled out for the season following a knee injury against South Alabama last week. This comes just weeks after running back Darrell Smith was also ruled out for the season with a knee injury, which he suffered against Arkansas State. UL is now down to three healthy running backs on the roster in JJ Garner, Steven Blanco, and Ke’Rynn Smith. Smith, a true freshman, has not seen the field much, but is now expected to play a role in the Cajuns’ running back rotation. As he is young and relatively new to the team, we shouldn’t expect to see him much of him just yet, but it is important to note that this is a thin running back room. Keys to the Game 1. Establish the Running Game Early It’s the number one key every game. Louisiana’s offensive identity has clearly revolved around its ground attack, and Thursday’s matchup presents another favorable opportunity against vulnerable run defense. With the Warhawks allowing 211.1 rushing yards per game, the Cajuns should look to establish Winfield, Garner and the rest of their rushing attack early. Winning the battle at the line of scrimmage would allow Louisiana to control possession and dictate the pace of the game. 2. Contain UL-Monroe’s Mobile Quarterbacks Carlisle and Armenta combined for 144 rushing yards against Arkansas State, demonstrating their ability to create problems for opposing defenses. Louisiana’s defensive front must remain disciplined, maintain gap integrity and prevent UL-Monroe’s quarterbacks from extending drives with their legs. Forcing the Warhawks into predictable passing situations could also create opportunities for a defense that has recorded seven interceptions this season. 3. Finish Drives and Protect the Football Louisiana has been one of the more efficient teams in the country at putting points on the board once inside the red zone, scoring on 30 of its 31 trips this season. Against a vulnerable UL-Monroe defense, the Cajuns must capitalize on scoring opportunities rather than allow the Warhawks to hang around. Avoiding costly turnovers will be equally important, especially against a rival who has gained confidence from two recent road victories. 4. Play a Complete Four Quarters on the Road The Cajuns have already experienced several close finishes this season, including their one-point loss to Louisiana Tech, four-point loss to Southern Miss and two-point victory over South Alabama. Unfortunately those two losses have more than likely cost them the opportunity to contend for the Sun Belt title game, and both were on the road. With a short turnaround and a hostile rivalry environment, UL cannot afford an inconsistent performance. Not that we should expect many fans in Monroe to be there and make it a hostile environment, but I digress. Establishing an early lead, maintaining defensive discipline and executing late in the game will be essential to securing another road victory. Final Score Prediction: LOUISIANA 24, UL-Monroe 17 Despite the disparity in records, I expect this game to be a physical, hard-fought close game, especially with both teams coming off victories on a short week. I also don’t see this being anything more than a low-scoring game unless someone comes out with a kick return or defensive score, which obviously is not something someone just predicts. Louisiana’s rushing attack should find success against a struggling Warhawks defense, while UL-Monroe’s mobile quarterbacks could present challenges for the Cajuns. That said, I expect both teams to mainly keep this a ground attack, but would not be surprised if one tries to expose the other by passing the ball. Ultimately, I believe Louisiana’s advantage in the trenches and ability to control the running game will be enough to secure a 24-17 victory, improving to 7-3 on the season and extending its winning streak over the Warhawks to four games. This game will likely come down to who can control the ball better and limit mistakes. The Cajuns have struggled on the road, but I think they pull this one off against a struggling UL-Monroe team. Coach Desormeaux, after experiencing tough losses on the road this year, has definitely preached to his team the importance of starting this game strong. I think they will show that in this game. Abdul Abusada of Cajun Sports Talk