Sun Belt play is finally here, and the 3-1 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns open conference play Saturday night with a Homecoming matchup against the 2-2 Arkansas State Red Wolves. Kickoff is set for 7pm at Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium.

Louisiana enters the game as a 6.5-point home favorite against a familiar Sun Belt opponent. These two have traded blows for years, including last November in Jonesboro when the Cajuns escaped with a 34-30 win after stopping Arkansas State just inches short of the goal line on the final play.

It has been a strong start defensively for Louisiana. The Cajuns are allowing just under 261 yards per game, including only 93 on the ground, and have forced six interceptions through four games. The defense has also only allowed two touchdowns this season outside of their loss against USC. Pair that with the dynamic rushing ability of quarterback Lunch Winfield, and it has helped Louisiana get off to a 3-1 start heading into conference play.

Arkansas State also enters this matchup after a schedule that has tested the Red Wolves in several different ways. They stayed competitive with Memphis for much of the opener before getting worn down late, dominated an overmatched FCS West Georgia team, struggled offensively against TCU and then grinded out a 17-14 win over Kennesaw State last week.

The Red Wolves have shown they can be dangerous through the air behind quarterback Trey Owens and a solid group of receivers. Defensively, they have generally been respectable outside of the Memphis game, when they were gashed on the ground. They appear to be a capable but inconsistent team that can make Louisiana work for this one, especially if the Cajuns give them opportunities.

KEYS TO THE GAME

1. Stay Ahead of the Chains

Arkansas State is allowing 184 rushing yards per game, but that number doesn’t completely tell the story. Memphis in week one did most of the damage, while the Red Wolves have been much better against the run in their games that followed.

That said, Louisiana should still have opportunities on the ground. Arkansas State will obviously have its eyes on Winfield, who remains UL’s leading rusher, but the Cajuns’ new running back group has continued to develop around him. If Louisiana can consistently pick up positive yards on early downs, it should keep the offense out of difficult third-down situations.

This could also be a good opportunity for the Cajuns to open up the passing game a little more which has been somewhat dormant. Wide receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. is back as a starter from injury, as well as tight end Caden Jensen, so the offense is very much back at full strength. Arkansas State has also struggled to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks, recording only three sacks through four games, so this would be a great time to open it all up.

Louisiana has the weapons to move the football against this defense. While they too have had inconsistency at times, this is the healthiest the offense has been since the opening drive of the opener. Now it’s about executing consistently and staying ahead of the chains.

2. Make Arkansas State One-Dimensional

The Red Wolves have been at their best when Owens gets comfortable distributing the football to his receivers. He has also settled in since a rough opener at Memphis. After throwing four interceptions in Week 1, Owens has completed 67% of his passes for 512 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three games.

Arkansas State’s running game, meanwhile, hasn’t been nearly as imposing. The Red Wolves average 153 rushing yards per game, and even that number is boosted by what they did against West Georgia. But, they too have a group of running backs that have evolved throughout the season, including quarterback Trey Owens keeping it at times, though it hasn’t been crisp clean.

That plays into what Louisiana has done well defensively. The Cajuns are allowing just under 93 rushing yards per game while holding opponents to 168 through the air. They have also intercepted six passes, with Brent Gordon Jr. coming off a huge performance against Charlotte that included an interception and two fumble recoveries.

The biggest question will be how the defense responds without linebacker Conor McPherson, UL’s leading tackler, who has been ruled out for the season with an upper-body injury. Redshirt junior Micah Johnson is expected to step into the mike linebacker role, while true freshman Harrison Kidder moves into the starting lineup at sam.

Losing McPherson is a significant blow, and there may be some growing pains as the Cajuns adjust. But the formula shouldn’t change much: slow down Arkansas State on the ground, put Owens into obvious passing situations and make him consistently beat a secondary that has created turnovers all season.

3. Win the Turnover Battle

This one is pretty simple. Louisiana’s four takeaways against Charlotte played a major role in turning what was actually a close game into a 34-7 win. Against Arkansas State, another extra possession or two could make a huge difference.

But this goes both ways. One of the bigger issues for Louisiana this season has been keeping the football secure. The Cajuns have fumbled seven times through four games and lost three of them. Opponents have also been able to turn some of Louisiana’s offensive mistakes directly into points, three of which have resulted in defensive touchdowns.

That has to get cleaned up as conference play begins. Louisiana’s defense has played too well for the offense to keep putting it in bad situations. If the Cajuns protect the football while continuing to create turnovers defensively, they should put themselves in a good position to win.

Final Prediction: Louisiana 20, Arkansas State 16

I originally had this as a slightly higher-scoring game, somewhere around Louisiana 31, Arkansas State 20. But with rain expected throughout the weekend, I’m thinking Saturday night might not be clean football. Forecast calls for scattered rain all day Saturday as part of a greater system that has come upon the Deep South, which even resulted in high school Friday night games being pushed up to Thursday night.

If the conditions are as wet as expected, neither team may have much success consistently pushing the ball downfield through the air. That could turn this into a game decided by who can run the football better, protect it in wet conditions and finish a couple of drives in the end zone.

That makes me like Louisiana’s defense even more in this matchup. Arkansas State has shown some flashes offensively, but it hasn’t consistently put points on the board against better competition. With their running game not being very bright yet, if the weather limits their passing game, sustaining drives against this Cajuns defense could become difficult.

Louisiana will probably make some mistakes of its own as well. They have struggled putting points up on the board in many key situations this season, especially in the last two weeks when fumbles have increased. With the weather being what it could be, this is why I have the score relatively low and close. But give me the Cajuns. They’re at home for Homecoming, the defense has been playing extremely well, especially at home, and I think they find a way to do enough offensively to pull it out.

It may not be a packed Homecoming crowd with the weather coming in, and it may not be the prettiest football game we watch all season. But wet conditions, a conference opener and two familiar Sun Belt opponents? Sounds like we may be getting some hard, gritty, old-school football Saturday night.