Finally, after a long off-season week 1 is here with New Orleans Saints taking on the Tennessee Titans in the Caesars Superdome. It’s natural after a good off-season to expect the Saints to be the completed article right out of the gate, with all the new signings gelling together perfectly, and players coming back from injury looking exactly as they did before but realistically, we can’t expect that straight away some things will take time. 

However, there are some things that we need to see this week to show that the team is on track to be where we (the fans and media) expect them to be…. Winning the NFC South and being a factor in the NFC playoffs. So, let’s break down what those are. 

Pete Carmichael Jr. Being Firmly In His Bag

        We’ve all heard the saying live each day as if it is your last, well I’m introducing a new one for Saints OC Pete Carmichael Jr. Call each game as if it’s your last. Last season the Saints offense was stale and predictable, with very limited creativity. Yes, you could argue that having to plan a whole off-season for Jameis Winston to be your starting QB only to have Andy Dalton stay the majority of the season could have had something to do with it.

I’m not letting Pete off that easily, regardless of who was at QB there was no excuse for Alvin Kamara to be used so sparingly in the passing game, especially in the screen game and there was no excuse for the only thing at times that was working on offense (Taysom Hill at QB) completely disappeared for large portions of games (see the first half in Cleveland).

        This can’t happen this year, Pete now has a QB who’s a perfect fit for his system in Derek Carr. In camp, we’ve seen more use of motion (the Saints were 31st in the league last year in the use of motion) we’ve seen Rashid Shaheed lined up in the backfield. Kamara practicing with the WRs and being used more in the slot and out-wide and Taysom Hill is being used not just as a rusher and passer but also as a receiver. 

        More about how I would use Shaheed and Taysom here- Could This Be The Most Versatile Saints Backfield Combination....Ever?. These things are all encouraging that we won’t see the same predictable and stale offense that frustrated every Saints fan last year but if nothing changes when the games begin then that could be an ominous sign that Pete is still stuck in the past and unable to turn up when the lights come on.

The Saints Have Stopped Shooting Themselves In The Foot

        Last season the Saints totaled the 12th most penalties in the NFL, if not for an improved end to the season this would have been even higher, and they were tied for the most in the NFL with 25 false start penalties. They were tied for 4th most in giveaways, within that they had 11 lost fumbles (this would have been even higher counting the ones they didn’t lose) 11 lost fumbles meant they were tied (with 3 other teams) for the 4th most in the NFL. I don’t bring up these rather grim stats to force Saints fans to think back too much to a frankly depressing 2022 campaign, I bring these up to highlight that the Saints were a distinctly undisciplined team last year. Pre-snap penalties and fumbles are largely within a team’s control to avoid.

        The 2023 preseason also gives some cause for concern in this area, in game 1 Vs the Chiefs the Saints were flagged 9 times, in game 2 Vs the Chargers they were flagged a ridiculous 14 times, whilst things improved in the 3rd and final game VS Texans as the Saints were only flagged twice.  Yes, this was only preseason and some of the players who committed those fouls aren’t even on the team anymore. However, the same issues plagued the Saints in the 2022 preseason and then we all saw them bleed over into the regular season. It starts with HC Dennis Allen and the Saints coaches being able to hold players more accountable for their mistakes and making repeat offenders pay (via playing time) to keep others sharp and in check. The Saints ability to not fix these avoidable errors last year not only cost them on individual drives but it cost them games and we need to see things improved from the get-go this year.

The Saints Defense Line Wasn’t An Off-Season Mirage 

        The 2022 New Orleans Saints finished tied for 4th in the NFL with 48 sacks, so at face value you’d think the D-line was a strength last season but if you did a little deeper you realize that wasn’t at all the case.  18 of those sacks came from non-d-line players that’s 37.5% of the team’s sacks. To compare the Saints were tied with the Ravens, only 12 of their sacks came from non-D-line players (25%), and the Ravens weren’t particularly known for their fierce D-line in the 2022 season.

        The Saints’ D-line struggled mightily to generate pressure using just the 4 down linemen an ability that the Saints had been known for prior to last season since 2017. It wasn’t just the Pass rush that took a step back, the previously top 3 run defense did too, the Saints allowed the 10th highest YPC (4.5) in the league. Now you can’t put this all down to the D-line, but it did have a lot to do with the drop-off. That’s why heading into this off-season the biggest concern outside of QB for me was rebuilding the d-line. The Saints did that by drafting DT Bryan Bresee and Isiah Foskey in the first 2 rounds of the draft. They also added DT’s Khalen Saunders and Nathen Shepherd in free agency. 3 of those 4 look to be immediate impact players, especially Bresee as a pass rusher and Saunders as a run defender. Shepherd seems to be more of a base DT who will be solid against both run and pass. Foskey sadly has struggled early and is likely to be a health inactive for a lot of this year if the rest of the line is healthy whilst he adjusts to the NFL game.

        When the Saints drafted Foskey if you told me that would be what I’m typing at this stage of the off-season then I would be very concerned about this line entering the year. Enter Carl Granderson, Payton Turner, and Malcolm Roach, all three have had excellent off-seasons, their best as Saints. Turner especially flashed signs of dominance in the preseason the type of playing we’ve all been calling for since the Saints drafted him in the first round 2 years ago. Granderson and Roach showed more of their stellar play in camp rather than in the games. With Roach being called an interior player in camp by Cam Jordan.

        This all sounds very cheery, doesn’t it? I’m hoping it is. The new and old faces have shown everything we could have asked this off-season however we’ve seen this before players flashing in camp and then disappearing when the game starts. In fact, I seem to remember Roach having hype pieces written about him this time last season only for an early season injury and uninspiring play to poor cold water on those very articles. The run defense may take a bit of time to hit their full potential since the Saints had their D-lineman lose some weight and installed a more attacking run defense scheme than the team has used previously. I think we still see improvements Week 1 but I expect it to improve considerably throughout the year. The pass rush that we need to see this week, should get off to a hot start. The Titans have one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL so the rush should be able to disruptive. The interior or the edge it shouldn’t matter, if what we’ve seen from this unit this off-season is not a mirage.

Derek Carr To Prove The Camp Reports Right 

        I’ve saved arguably the most important for last, Carr has had about as good of an off-season since signing with the Saints in March as any of us could have hoped. He’s shown full command of the offense and has hardly had a bad day of practice. His preseason debut came in clutch for the hype train as his lone drive of the preseason ended with 80 yards in 12 plays capped by a patient and perfectly thrown TD pass to Keith Kirkwood. It is hard to not get too hyped about the preseason and the training camp hype that’s been coming from all Saints media this off-season. It is of course exactly what we want to hear and see but it only matters if Carr shows it in the regular season.

        He will face a stiff test against a really good Titans defense, so we don’t need to see perfection from Carr straight away it will of course take time to fully imbed the chemistry with Mike Thomas and the rest of the pass catchers but what we do need to see this week is improvements from what we saw last year at QB.  We’ve all heard the popular trope this off-season that Carr isn’t even really an upgrade on the Andy Dalton we saw last year. I have no doubt over the course of the season that idea will be proved to be completely wrong, but we need to see the evidence of that starting this coming week.

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