THIBODAUX, La. — There is something different about the first game of a college football season.

For months, everything is hypothetical. Depth charts are discussed, newcomers are evaluated, expectations are set, and predictions are made. Then the lights come on, the ball is kicked off, and we finally get some answers.

For Nicholls, that happens tonight.

The Colonels open the 2026 season at Manning Field at John L. Guidry Stadium against Mississippi Valley State, beginning the second season under head coach Tommy Rybacki and a year in which Nicholls hopes to take a significant step forward.

On paper, this is a game the Colonels should win. Nicholls has never lost to Mississippi Valley State, and the last meeting between the programs wasn't particularly competitive. But tonight is less about what Nicholls has done against Valley and more about what this game can tell us about where the Colonels are headed.

HISTORY

Nicholls and Mississippi Valley State have met only twice, with a 26-year gap separating those games. The first came on Sept. 12, 1998, in New Orleans, where the Colonels earned a 41-26 victory.

The Delta Devils wouldn't appear on the Nicholls schedule again until 2024, and their first trip to Thibodaux turned into a historic night for the Colonels.

Nicholls scored 21 points in the opening quarter, added 24 more in the second and cruised to a 66-0 victory. The Colonels rushed for 455 yards, while the defense intercepted six passes to tie a school record.

That leaves Nicholls 2-0 all-time in the series while outscoring Valley 107-26.

None of those points carry over to tonight.

Mississippi Valley State returns to Thibodaux with a program now in its second season under Terrell Buckley, and the Delta Devils have had an entire offseason to remember what happened the last time they walked onto Manning Field.

WHAT THIS GAME MEANS

Nicholls, meanwhile, has much bigger concerns than trying to duplicate a 66-point victory.

The Colonels are trying to find out exactly what they have.

Rybacki's first season ended with Nicholls at 4-8 overall and 4-4 in Southland Conference play. There were enough moments throughout the year to show the potential of the program, but not enough consistency to turn those moments into a winning season.

That makes tonight important.

Not because beating Mississippi Valley State would suddenly make Nicholls a Southland championship contender, but because of what is waiting on the other side of it.

Next week, the Colonels travel to Manhattan to face Kansas State. Southland play begins shortly after that against UTRGV, and another FBS matchup against Sam Houston follows.

The difficulty level is about to increase quickly.

Tonight is Nicholls' opportunity to work out some of the issues before it does.

WHERE IT STARTS

It begins at quarterback with Thibodaux native Ean Rodrigue.

Rodrigue showed efficiency last season, completing 65.6 percent of his passes while throwing six touchdowns against only one interception. He also added another dimension with his legs, rushing for 252 yards and two touchdowns.

The question entering 2026 isn't necessarily whether Rodrigue can put up huge passing numbers. It's whether he can take command of the offense.

Nicholls has traditionally been at its best when it can establish the running game, control the clock and make opposing defenses pay when they begin creeping toward the line of scrimmage. Rodrigue doesn't have to abandon that identity. He has to make it work.

Having Shane Lee behind him certainly helps.

Lee quietly became one of the most productive pieces of the Nicholls offense last season, rushing for 636 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 5.9 yards per carry. More importantly, he seemed to get better as the season progressed, scoring six rushing touchdowns over the final three games.

At 225 pounds, Lee can provide the physical running style Nicholls has leaned on for years. If the Colonels are able to control the line of scrimmage tonight, expect him to be heavily involved.

The passing game has some familiar pieces as well. Karaaz Johnson returns after catching 21 passes for 252 yards and two touchdowns, while 6-foot-4 Jackson Dufrene gives Rodrigue a bigger target who averaged 17.6 yards per reception last season.

But the offense isn't necessarily the biggest question entering tonight.

A NEW LOOK DEFENSE

That may belong to the defense.

Nicholls lost a significant amount of experience from last year's roster and brought in a large group of newcomers to help replace it. Familiar names such as Alex Villavaso and Joey Lightfoot return up front, but several transfers could have an immediate impact, including Jhamal Shelby Jr. from Louisiana Tech, Kennon Loftin from Western Kentucky, Lynard Harris from ULM and Zavian Dilworth from Eastern Michigan.

How quickly that group comes together could tell us much more about the Colonels than the final score.

That's really what tonight is about.

Nicholls should beat Mississippi Valley State. There's no reason to dance around that.

But there is a difference between winning an opener and using an opener to prepare yourself for what is coming.

Can Nicholls control the line of scrimmage? Can Rodrigue command the offense? Can Lee establish himself as the centerpiece of the running game? Can the new pieces on defense communicate and play together? Can the Colonels avoid turnovers and penalties? And if Nicholls builds an early lead, can the coaching staff get younger players meaningful snaps that may become valuable later this season?

Those are the questions worth watching.

There is also the simple reality that Nicholls needs to begin stacking wins again.

The Colonels aren't far removed from winning back-to-back Southland Conference championships in 2022 and 2023. The standard around the program changed during that stretch. Four wins isn't where Nicholls wants to be, and everyone inside the program knows it.

Getting back into the Southland championship conversation isn't going to happen tonight.

But the road back can start tonight.

That's what makes a season opener interesting. We know what happened last year. We know what's on the schedule. We know the names we're supposed to watch.

What we don't know yet is what the 2026 Nicholls Colonels will look like when the football actually matters.

Tonight, we finally get to find out.

Photo courtesy of Nicholls Athletics.