College Football Futures: Can Tulane Repeat Success?
The Tulane Green Wave exceeded expectations last year winning 12 games when they had won only two the year before. They won the AAC championship & defeated the USC Trojans led by Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Can the Green Wave run through the AAC, and make it to another New Year's Six Bowl Game again this year? Vegas believes so by making them odds favorites (+200) to go back-to-back. Cincinnati, Houston, & UCF all jumped from the AAC to the Big 12. Tulane appears poised to win another conference championship in 2023. In my opinion there are some reasonable concerns for Tulane dealing with roster turnover and their difficult schedule. For these reasons, I would consider the under-win total of 9.5 (-150)
2023 Roster Turnover
The major hole to file is how will the Green Wave look to fill Tyjae Spears production who left for the draft. He was such a difference maker on offense rushing for 1,581 yards and 19 touchdowns. These are some major shoes to fill. The team will need to rely on 4th year quarterback Michael Pratt to elevate his game to another level. Pratt's 27 passing and 10 rushing touchdowns in 2022 were good, but his 3,009 passing yards ranked 6th last year in the AAC.
Last year Tulane ranked 2nd in the AAC in Total Defense last year, and is known as an elite unit in the conference. Entering this season they lost 5 of their top tacklers and only 4 starters returned. Senior Cornerback Jarius Monroe has been selected as First-Team Defense for All AAC. There is some talent on this side of the ball, but it will be tested as they enter the 2023 football season.
2023 Tulane Football Schedule
9/2 vs South Alabama
9/9 vs Ole Miss
9/16 at Southern Miss
9/23 vs Nicholls State
9/30 vs UAB
10/13 at Memphis
10/21 vs North Texas
10/28 at Rice
11/4 at East Carolina
11/11 vs Tulsa
11/18 at FAU
11/25 vs UTSA
Tulane wins total 9.5 (over +120/under -150)
I know coming off that Sugar Bowl victory against USC, it seems like the over is a lock play. The football schedule doesn't have any room for letdowns.
The Wave kickoff their out-of-conference schedule with home games versus South Alabama and Ole Miss. South Alabama has a veteran squad that includes 17 returning starters. That includes Junior quarterback Devin Voisin, and returning starters at the running back and wide receiver positions. This will be a strong test for Michael Pratt out of the gate to go up against a veteran defense that has 2 First Team All Sun Belt Safeties Yam Banks & Keith Gallmon Jr.
In 2021, the Rebels defeated the Wave 61-21. Pratt went 10-18, 166 yards & 2 touchdowns in that game. Tulane is lucky that the Rebels travel to New Orleans for this one. Rebels' Head Coach Lane Kiffin's playcalling is elite. This will be a huge test for this defense to get stops, and for Pratt to keep up offensively.
It's possible the Green Wave could start the season 1-1 or 0-2 with 8 games remaining. There is no room for error going forward from here.
The schedule eases up, but they have difficult road games this season. Their first test is at Memphis on October 13, and then 2 road games in November at ECU & at FAU. Memphis is known for their offense that averaged 35.5 points and 421.5 yards per game in 2022. Tom Herman is entering his first year as head coach at FAU. If he can develop one of the two quarterbacks, there is certainly good talent at the skill positions to keep them in games.
Luckily the Green Wave avoid the SMU Mustangs this season who are projected 2nd to win the conference (+350), but the season will come down to the final game against UTSA (proj. 3rd + 450) on November 25. UTSA comes from Conference USA winning back-to-back championships and looks to add the AAC conference title to their trophy case. The UTSA offense has 10 starters returning. Quarterback Frank Harris is First-Team All-AAC along with 6 other offensive starters making this list. The defense also has 4 First-Team All-AAC starters. This group have achieved a lot together and look to crash the AAC party as the new kids on the block.
This game could be a preview of the conference championship game, but most importantly could determine if you cash 10 wins or not. In my opinion, I lean towards the under 9.5 wins but a bet I won't be making. I think the first two games are tough to judge without knowing how this team will operate without Spears. Then a showdown finale at home versus the Roadrunners. if Tulane goes 9-3 or 8-4 it's not a bad season. It's probably enough to win the conference. I think fans are excited to see if Tulane can sustain success after the 2022 season, and continue to be number one in the conference.
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