A familiar in-state rivalry is getting a new chapter as the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns head north to Ruston to face the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs on Saturday evening. This time, however, the two programs will meet as Sun Belt Conference opponents. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30pm at Joe Aillet Stadium, where Louisiana Tech will play its first-ever football game as a Sun Belt member after spending the previous 13 seasons in Conference USA. The Bulldogs previously held Sun Belt membership in other sports, but Saturday will mark the beginning of a new era for their football program. The 4-1 Cajuns opened the week as three-point road underdogs against the 2-2 Bulldogs. Louisiana enters the matchup following a narrow 23-20 victory over Arkansas State in its conference opener, while Louisiana Tech is coming off a thrilling 31-29 home victory over Army. Dating back to 1915, Louisiana and Louisiana Tech have met 87 times, with the Bulldogs holding a 48-33-6 advantage in the all-time series. Both programs spent much of the 20th century competing as conference rivals across six different conferences, most recently in the Big West from 1993 to 1995. Louisiana won all three meetings during that stretch. Since then, however, the rivalry has been largely one-sided. The Cajuns last defeated Louisiana Tech in 1996, losing eight consecutive meetings since that victory. Now, nearly 30 years later, Louisiana has an opportunity to end that drought while spoiling the Bulldogs’ Sun Belt football debut, but doing so in Ruston won’t be easy. What We Kneaux About Louisiana Louisiana’s 4-1 start has been fueled largely by a red-hot defense that currently ranks among the nation’s best. Through five games, the Cajuns rank 19th nationally in total defense, allowing just 267 yards per game. They’ve been particularly impressive against the run, surrendering only 91 rushing yards per contest. Louisiana is one of just 27 FBS programs allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, a mark the Cajuns have held their opponents under in all four victories. Offensively, quarterback Lunch Winfield has been the star of the show. The redshirt junior has completed over 75% of his passes for 844 yards and two touchdowns, but it’s his ability to make plays with his legs that has truly transformed the Cajuns’ offense. Winfield has rushed for 364 yards and seven touchdowns, giving Louisiana a dangerous dual-threat option under center. The Cajuns have leaned heavily on their ground game to sustain drives and put points on the board. While the passing attack has been efficient, Louisiana has struggled to consistently stretch the field vertically, instead relying on shorter completions to move the chains. So far, that approach has worked. But when opponents have managed to slow down the run, moving the football has become considerably more difficult. The biggest concern for Louisiana entering Saturday is the growing injury list. Linebacker Conor McPherson, who led the team in tackles before suffering a season-ending injury against Charlotte, is among five Cajuns ruled out for the remainder of the year. Running back Darrell Smith, Louisiana’s leading running back prior to last week’s game, also suffered a season-ending knee injury on the opening drive against Arkansas State. Meanwhile, standout safety Collin Jacob suffered an upper body injury that will likely have him sidelined until November. Those are significant losses on both sides of the football, but the good news is depth has already begun to answer the call. Running backs JJ Garner, Anthony Reagan Jr. and Steven Blanco have stepped into larger roles following Smith’s injury. Defensively, linebacker Micah Johnson recorded 10 tackles against Arkansas State, including a crucial goal-line stop, while Jake St. Andre added seven tackles. Redshirt sophomore Lake Bates also showed promise after taking over for Jacob in the second half. Losing key contributors is not something the Cajuns are new to, but not something they want to see, especially as conference play begins to intensify. The Cajuns have demonstrated that they’re capable of overcoming adversity, and there’s plenty of confidence within this group despite the injuries. That depth will be tested again on Saturday. Kneaux the Opponent: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs Louisiana Tech is 2-2, but don’t let the record fool you. The Bulldogs have faced one of the more challenging schedules in the country up to this point through the opening weeks of the season. Their losses came against nationally good teams in LSU and Baylor, while their victories included an 80-6 demolition of Northwestern State and last week’s 31-29 win over Army. Louisiana Tech’s defense has shown flashes of being a legitimate problem for opposing offenses, even against superior competition. Against LSU in Week 2, the Bulldogs forced four first-half turnovers, including a pick-six, and trailed the Tigers just 10-7 at halftime. Their defensive front has been especially disruptive, averaging nearly 10 tackles for loss per game, which is tied for second nationally. Offensively, the Bulldogs have demonstrated the ability to move the football both on the ground and through the air. Quarterbacks Blake Baker and Trey Kukuk have combined for 828 passing yards, seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. Baker began the season as the starter before an injury opened the door for Kukuk following the LSU game. With Kukuk now dealing with an ankle injury, Baker is expected to get the start on Saturday. Wide receiver Jalen Mickens has emerged as Louisiana Tech’s most dangerous receiving threat, hauling in 21 receptions for 342 yards and two touchdowns. The second-year receiver has already recorded 100-yard performances against Northwestern State and LSU. The Bulldogs also have a reliable target at tight end in Eli Finley. 6-foot-6 and 246-pound monster has recorded 211 receiving yards and two touchdowns. And then there’s running back Dylone Brooks, who exploded against Army last week with 119 rushing yards on just seven carries, including a 72-yard touchdown run. Brooks also added a 74-yard receiving touchdown, demonstrating just how dangerous he can be in open space. Granted, some of Louisiana Tech’s offensive numbers are inflated by its 80-point performance against Northwestern State, an FCS program which, if you didn’t know by now, has struggled mightily in recent years. But the Bulldogs have shown that they possess legitimate big-play threats. Combine that explosiveness with a physical defensive front, and the Cajuns will have their hands full in Ruston. Keys to the Game for UL 1. Control the Line of Scrimmage on Offense If there’s one area where Louisiana Tech could, and most likely will, give the Cajuns serious problems, it’s in the trenches. As mentioned earlier, the Bulldogs are tied for second nationally in tackles for loss. Of Louisiana’s previous opponents, Charlotte is arguably the closest comparison in terms of how disruptive its defensive front was against the Cajuns. And we all remember how difficult that game was offensively. Louisiana has generally done a good job controlling the line of scrimmage, particularly with Winfield’s mobility helping extend plays and avoid negative yardage. But Louisiana Tech will present another significant challenge. The Cajuns cannot afford to consistently find themselves in second-and-long or third-and-long situations, especially against a defensive front capable of creating havoc in the backfield. Establishing the run early, protecting Winfield and staying ahead of the chains will be critical if Louisiana hopes to move the football consistently. 2. Eliminate Explosive Plays on Defense Louisiana’s defense has done an excellent job limiting big plays for much of the season, but Louisiana Tech has several weapons capable of changing a game in an instant. Brooks’ performance against Army should serve as a warning. A 72-yard rushing touchdown and a 74-yard receiving score are exactly the kinds of plays the Cajuns cannot afford to surrender. Add Mickens’ ability to stretch the field, and Louisiana’s defense will need to remain disciplined at every level. Now, the Bulldogs haven’t necessarily relied on Brooks as a primary offensive weapon throughout the season, but his explosiveness last week cannot be overlooked. With Louisiana already dealing with injuries in its defensive unit, limiting those explosive opportunities becomes even more important. Depth pieces on the defensive side will have some big roles to fill. Make Louisiana Tech earn its yards rather than allowing one play to flip the momentum. 3. Win the Turnover Battle Both teams have done an impressive job forcing turnovers this season. Louisiana has recorded 10 takeaways through five games, while Louisiana Tech has forced eight takeaways through four games. However, the Cajuns have also given the football away seven times, compared to just five turnovers committed by the Bulldogs. Ball security has been a recurring concern for Louisiana, particularly earlier in the season when the Cajuns combined for six fumbles against UAB and Charlotte. There was improvement last week as Louisiana fumbled just once against Arkansas State last week, although that came on the unfortunate play in which Smith injured his knee. Still, turnovers can be the difference between winning and losing, especially in a matchup expected to be this close. Louisiana Tech has demonstrated its ability to force mistakes against quality opponents, including LSU. The Cajuns cannot afford to give the Bulldogs additional possessions, particularly in front of their home crowd. Protect the football, create takeaways and don’t give Louisiana Tech opportunities to capitalize on unnecessary mistakes. 4. Finish Drives with Touchdowns One of Louisiana’s most impressive offensive statistics this season is its efficiency inside the red zone. The Cajuns are a perfect 20-for-20 in red-zone scoring opportunities, with 15 of those possessions resulting in touchdowns. That’s outstanding efficiency. But against Arkansas State, Louisiana needed three field goals to go along with its two touchdowns to escape with a 23-20 victory. Having a reliable kicker is certainly a luxury, and coming away with points is always better than leaving empty-handed. However, there will be games where settling for three simply won’t be enough. Saturday could very well be one of them. Against a physical Louisiana Tech defense in what should be a hostile environment, the Cajuns will need to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns rather than field goals. Three points are nice, but six are better. Final Prediction: Louisiana 24, Louisiana Tech 20 I’ll admit, this was a difficult score and result to pick. I think I sat here for about an hour going through different metrics and strengths/weaknesses of every team, then taking into the consideration of what the environment will be like on Saturday against a rival for Louisiana Tech’s first ever Sun Belt football game. More times than not, I picked the Bulldogs to win, but always came back with a “but.” Here’s why: On one hand, Louisiana Tech has been considerably more battle-tested through the opening weeks of the season. The Bulldogs have faced LSU, Baylor and Army, and while their record may not necessarily reflect it, they’ve demonstrated the ability to compete against quality opponents. Their defensive front is particularly concerning for a Louisiana offense that has struggled at times when opponents contain the rushing attack. On the other hand, the Cajuns have been one of the more complete teams in the Sun Belt through five games, especially defensively. Louisiana has found ways to win games without needing explosive offensive performances, and Winfield’s mobility has been a major reason why. There’s also the return of wide receiver Shelton Sampson Jr. to a heavier offensive mix than last week after recovering from an ankle injury, which could provide a much-needed spark in the passing game. We know what Sampson is capable of when he’s involved, and the Cajuns could certainly benefit from another dangerous playmaker. For Louisiana Tech, the biggest offensive concern has been its inability to consistently capitalize on scoring opportunities. The Bulldogs have converted just 71% of their red-zone trips into points, although the level of competition they’ve faced certainly has to be taken into consideration. The Cajuns on the flip side are perfect in the red-zone. The one thing I can agree on is this has all the makings of another low-scoring, physical battle for Louisiana. I expect both defenses to make their presence felt, with the outcome potentially coming down to whichever team controls the line of scrimmage, protects the football and makes the most of its scoring opportunities. Now like I said earlier, Louisiana Tech has plenty working in its favor. The Bulldogs will have the home crowd behind them in their first-ever Sun Belt football game, the historical advantage in this rivalry and an opportunity to make an immediate statement in Sun Belt Conference who many thought the Bulldogs could not compete well in. Louisiana, meanwhile, enters Ruston riding a three-game winning streak, boasting one of the nation’s better defenses and carrying nearly 30 years of frustration against its in-state rival. If these two teams were playing on a neutral field, Louisiana would get the slight edge. I believe the Cajuns are the more complete team, particularly on defense. But Louisiana Tech’s challenging schedule, disruptive defensive front and explosive offensive weapons make the Bulldogs a dangerous opponent, especially at home. That’s what makes this game so difficult to predict, including for me. But something tells me Winfield will find a way to make enough plays with his legs to keep Louisiana moving offensively, even against a formidable Louisiana Tech defensive front. And something tells me this Cajuns defense will rise to the occasion once again. They overcame adversity multiple times last week and still managed to keep Arkansas State to just 20 points. Give me Louisiana to pull off the road upset, 24-20. Make no mistake, this is a toss-up game. This is a prediction I made where the expectation is that it goes the other way, but you somehow think it will go this way. Regardless, both programs have legitimate reasons to believe they can win, and rightly so. Saturday’s result could also very well carry significant implications in the Sun Belt championship race as the season progresses, which changes a lot of the dynamics. The Bulldogs may have the home-field advantage, but the Cajuns have the momentum and an opportunity to end one of the more frustrating losing streaks in program history. The streak has to end at some point, so why not Saturday? Allons, Cajuns!