Louisiana vs. ULM Preview/Predictions: Cajuns Bowl Hopes on the Line in Battle of the Bayou
Abdul Abusada • November 29, 2025
Rivalry week is finally here in the college football world, and in this beloved state, we have our very own: The Battle on the Bayou. The ULM Warhawks are set to face off against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns in Lafayette at 2pm Saturday to wrap up the regular season.
ULM started off this season on somewhat of a high note, going 3-1 with their only loss to a 21st-ranked Alabama team who shut them out 73-0. Then their downfall started, losing seven straight games and eliminating themselves from any postseason hopes, and that's where they sit coming into this week. This game does not hold much significance for the Warhawks, other than trying to "reignite" what has been a one-sided rivalry. ULM has only won 2 of the last 10 games vs Louisiana, and only 5 of the last 20 games.
Louisiana comes into this game with bowl eligibility on the line. "Louisiana" and "bowl eligibility" are two phrases that just a few weeks ago when the Cajuns were 2-6 that just simply didn't go together. The Cajuns have had a rough season riddled with injuries. From losing QB Walker Howard in the season opener to top WR Shelton Sampson Jr. battling injuries until midseason, and an offensive line devastated by nine season-ending injuries, this team has had to "scratch and claw" their way out of desperate situations every game.
However, after a 2-6 start with one more loss eliminating them from any bowl hopes, Louisiana now rides a 3-game winning streak coming into this game, covering the spread in all three games which they were underdogs in. It is something that although seemed so far-stretched for the fan base, the team kept believing. QB Lunch Winfield and Shelton Sampson Jr., both of whom have been on the forefront of the team's recent success, always knew that they had it in them, it was just a matter of when it would click for them and the entire team.
Here are the keys to a Cajuns victory and what we can expect on Saturday, as well as my predictions:
Offense needs to do what it has done best the last 3 weeks - start strong!
Through the first eight games of the season, the Cajuns only averaged 13 points in the first half of those games. But over the last three games (at South Alabama, vs Texas State, at Arkansas State), this offense averaged 28 points in the first half of those games. Ultimately, that early success has helped them win those 3 games, as their second half offense has not been as strong (average 8 points per game). Now granted, ULM’s offense is not as powerful as Texas State or South Alabama (Warhawks offense produces the least yards of any opponent UL has faced this season), and do a very poor job at putting up points (average 16 points per game). But given the rivalry situation (6 of the last 10 matchups between the two ended in a one-score game), this won’t be the time for the Cajuns to ease up. Expect the Cajuns to start off firing on all cylinders on offense to give them a cushion going into the halftime break.
Prediction:
Lunch Winfield will have 130 yards passing with a touchdown pass, as well as 50 yards rushing with a touchdown run in the first half of the game. ULM’s defense does a great job at getting to the QB (24 sacks on the season, led by CB D’Arco Perkins-McAllister and NT Dylan Howell with 4 each). With UL’s offensive line being shaky due to injuries and a depleted depth chart, I expect Lunch to move outside the pocket a lot. That being said, I don’t think we’ll see much of a great running game by the Cajuns, so they will have to rely much on Lunch’s dual-threat capabilities.
This is a momentum-building game for UL’s defense…if they can slow down the run
This is a defense that has struggled a lot this season, whether Cajuns fans want to believe it or not. UL has allowed 188 yards per game on the ground this season, and 255 yards through the air against Sun Belt teams, both of which are among the worst in the country. Even in their last three games, defense has been shaky at times. Against Texas State a couple weeks ago, they allowed 366 yards passing, 168 yards rushing, and 8 plays of 20+ yards, 5 of which resulted in touchdowns. There was improvement against Arkansas State last week even when many Cajuns defensive players were out to suspensions, limiting them to just 3 plays of 20+ yards and under 140 yards rushing.
With ULM coming in with a bottom-10 passing game, this should help the Cajuns build some confidence going into their bowl game should they win this game. However, ULM this season is a run-heavy team led by Braylon McReynolds and Zach Palmer-Smith, each with over 500 yards rushing. This could spell trouble for a UL defense that still struggles at slowing down the run.
Prediction:
ULM will be held to under 170 yards passing and under 150 yards rushing. UL’s run defense has been improving but very slowly. With bowl game hopes on the line, I think this team finally puts all the pieces together to slow down a run-heavy offense, forcing Armenta to have to throw more in dire need. Luckily, with the defense being pretty healthy coming into this game, I can see ULM being held to under 320 yards and very limited scoring opportunities.
Final Prediction: Even though this is a rivalry game that usually ends up being close, UL should win this game pretty handily. Although their record may say otherwise, this is a pretty good football team with an offense that can be explosive. As long as the defense can mesh together against a Warhawk offense that simply does not a good job moving the ball and scoring, I think this could end up being a blowout in favor of the Cajuns. Coach Des and the players have been very vocal about how much it’ll mean to them if they get the opportunity to play a 13th game, and they will work hard to earn that opportunity on Saturday. Give me UL to beat ULM 34-17, finishing 6-6 and earning bowl eligibility for an 8th straight season.
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